Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Prediction, Tips & Odds
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Match Preview
The model favours Borussia Dortmund to win this match against Werder Bremen, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Dortmund currently sits at the top of the Bundesliga table with a perfect record, having won all four of their matches so far this season. They have scored nine goals while conceding just two, showcasing a strong goal difference of seven. Their recent form is impressive, winning their last five matches, which highlights their attacking prowess and solid defense. On the other hand, Werder Bremen occupies the eighth position in the standings, having played four matches with two wins, one draw, and one loss. They have scored eight goals but have also conceded eight, resulting in a goal difference of zero. While their recent form shows some promise with three wins in their last five matches, they may struggle to keep pace with a dominant Dortmund side. The model gives Borussia Dortmund a win probability of 68.6%, while a draw stands at 17.8% and a Werder Bremen victory at 13.6%. There is a notable chance of over 2.5 goals in the match at 68.6%. However, Dortmund's defense could be tested if Werder Bremen finds their stride early. For a deeper understanding of this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, which details our in-house model's analysis based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.1% probability.
Borussia Dortmund have been the stronger side, winning 65% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Borussia Dortmund win as the most likely scoreline at 12.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Borussia Dortmund clean sheets, in line with their 39% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Borussia Dortmund are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.37 | 5.55 | 7.50 | 1.35 | 2.88 | 1.58 | 2.23 | |
| 1.33 | 5.50 | 8.00 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 1.37 | 5.72 | 7.51 | 1.40 | 3.00 | — | — | |
| 1.34 | 4.82 | 5.90 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.50 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.30 | |
| 1.36 | 5.25 | 8.00 | 1.40 | 3.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.41 | 5.70 | 7.70 | 1.35 | 2.88 | 1.58 | 2.26 | |
Betano | 1.37 | 5.40 | 7.30 | 1.42 | 2.95 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.00 | 7.50 | 1.38 | 2.73 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Borussia Dortmund leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen, Borussia Dortmund has won 7 times, with 2 draws and 1 victory for Werder Bremen. The scorelines indicate a generally dominant performance by Dortmund, with four matches ending in a two-goal margin or more, including a notable 4-1 win. While Werder Bremen managed to secure a 3-2 win in one instance, this result is the only heavy defeat they have inflicted during this stretch. The matches have been relatively low-scoring at times, with three draws and a scoreless game, suggesting that while Dortmund has been the stronger side, there have been some tight encounters.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 10 | WWDW |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 |  FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | LDWW |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 | WDWL |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | WLWD |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 | WDWL |
| 16 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | WLLL |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBorussia Dortmund have won 10 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Borussia Dortmund 3-0 and beat Borussia Dortmund 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 2D 9L from the last 31 games (65% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Werder Bremen have won 5 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with 1. FC Köln 1-1 and lost to SC Freiburg 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 5D 14L from the last 29 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBorussia Dortmund
No reported absences
Werder Bremen
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Borussia Dortmund average 2.0 goals per match at home; Werder Bremen 1.5 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Borussia Dortmund have generated 1.75 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 65% of them. They put 5.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Borussia Dortmund player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
