FC Augsburg vs Bayern München Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Augsburg vs Bayern München
Match Preview
The model favours Bayern München to win with a projected scoreline of 3-1 against FC Augsburg. Currently sitting in second place, Bayern has enjoyed a strong start to the season, recording three wins and a draw from their first four matches. They have scored 14 goals while conceding just 2, resulting in an impressive goal difference of +12. Their attacking prowess, combined with a solid defensive record, makes them a formidable opponent. On the other hand, FC Augsburg has started the season positively, currently in fourth place with 7 points from 4 matches. They have scored 11 goals but have also conceded 6, leading to a goal difference of +5. Their recent form includes three wins in their last five matches, indicating that they are capable of competing effectively. However, their defensive vulnerabilities may be exploited by Bayern's high-scoring attack. The model gives Bayern München a win probability of 76.5%, while FC Augsburg's chances sit at 10.3%. The prediction also suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 81.7%. One caveat for Bayern is the potential for complacency, as they may underestimate Augsburg's capability at home. For a detailed explanation of the prediction method, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (5.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 10.3% probability.
Bayern München have been the stronger side, winning 81% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-3 Bayern München win as the most likely scoreline at 10.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Bayern München are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Augsburg vs Bayern München| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 11.50 | 8.40 | 1.19 | 1.09 | 5.30 | 1.41 | 2.69 | |
| 12.00 | 8.50 | 1.18 | 1.11 | 5.50 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 9.86 | 9.26 | 1.20 | — | — | — | — | |
| 8.49 | 6.66 | 1.17 | — | — | — | — | |
| 10.00 | 7.50 | 1.18 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.75 | |
| 13.00 | 8.00 | 1.18 | 1.14 | 5.50 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 12.30 | 9.05 | 1.21 | 1.09 | 5.30 | 1.41 | 2.73 | |
Betano | 10.25 | 7.60 | 1.22 | 1.17 | 5.10 | 1.45 | 2.62 |
BetVictor | 10.50 | 7.00 | 1.15 | 1.11 | 6.00 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Bayern München leads 8-2)In the last ten matches between FC Augsburg and Bayern München, Bayern has won 8 times while Augsburg has secured 2 victories, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided affair, as Bayern has achieved several convincing wins, including a 5-3 and a 3-0, showcasing their offensive strength. Augsburg's victories were narrow, with their last win over Bayern occurring in January 2026. Overall, Bayern's dominance in this head-to-head record is clear, with Augsburg struggling to consistently challenge them.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 | Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 10 | WWDW |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 | FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | LDWW |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 | WDWL |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | WLWD |
| 16 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | WLLL |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Augsburg have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Hertha BSC 2-2 and drew with Bayer Leverkusen 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 8D 9L from the last 29 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Bayern München have won 15 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat SV Elversberg 1-2 and beat VfL Osnabrück 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 30W 4D 3L from the last 37 games (81% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Augsburg
No reported absences
Bayern München
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
FC Augsburg have averaged 11.0 corners per match at home; Bayern München 6.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 9.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Bayern München have generated 2.53 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 81% of them. They put 7.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Bayern München player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
