Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction, Tips & Odds
Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Match Preview
The model favours Sarpsborg 08 FF to win this match, predicting a scoreline of 2-1 against Aalesund. Sarpsborg currently sits in 9th place in the Eliteserien, with a season record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, accumulating 25 points over 21 matches. Their goal difference of -5 indicates they have struggled defensively, but their ability to find the net has been slightly better than Aalesund, who have conceded 46 goals this season. Aalesund is currently positioned 14th in the league, with a season total of 4 wins, 9 draws, and 8 losses, resulting in 21 points. Their goal difference of -13 highlights significant defensive weaknesses. Despite showing some improvement with three wins in their last five matches, their overall form has been inconsistent. This inconsistency may hinder their ability to gain crucial points in this matchup. The model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a win probability of approximately 54%, reflecting their superior league position and recent form compared to Aalesund. However, Aalesund's recent resurgence could pose a challenge, especially if they manage to capitalize on any defensive lapses from Sarpsborg. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.5% probability.
Aalesund have been the stronger side, winning 34% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Aalesund are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.51 | 3.68 | 2.47 | 1.37 | 2.66 | 1.35 | 2.88 | |
| 2.40 | 4.00 | 2.40 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.57 | 3.77 | 2.54 | 1.44 | 2.77 | — | — | |
| 2.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.45 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 2.45 | 3.70 | 2.45 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.58 | 3.78 | 2.54 | 1.37 | 2.66 | 1.35 | 2.94 | |
Betano | 2.47 | 3.75 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.67 | 1.38 | 2.80 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sarpsborg 08 FF leads 7-2)In the last 10 matches between Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF, Sarpsborg has won 7 times, Aalesund has won 2, and there has been 1 draw. This record indicates a strong advantage for Sarpsborg, particularly highlighted by several decisive victories, including a 4-0 win and multiple matches with a margin of at least two goals. Aalesund's two victories were closely contested, with one ending in a narrow 3-2 win. The draw frequency is low, and Aalesund last secured a win against Sarpsborg in May 2022, suggesting a challenging historical context for them in this matchup.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 54 | 20 | 34 | 50 | WWDWL |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 53 | 19 | 34 | 50 | LWWWW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 38 | WLLDL |
| 4 |  Molde | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 36 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  Rosenborg | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 30 | 9 | 33 | WWWLW |
| 6 |  Lillestrom | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 32 | LWWLD |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 25 | LDDDL |
| 14 | Aalesund | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 21 | WLWLD |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 40 | -19 | 19 | LLWDL |
| 16 |  Start | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 44 | -22 | 16 | LWLWL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAalesund have won 4 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Aalesund 5-5 and lost to Aalesund 2-6.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 9D 14L from the last 35 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 6 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-2 and drew with Fredrikstad 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 11L from the last 33 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAalesund
No reported absences
Sarpsborg 08 FF
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Aalesund have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; Sarpsborg 08 FF 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Aalesund have generated 1.50 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 34% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Aalesund player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
