Fredrikstad vs Tromso Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fredrikstad vs Tromso
Match Preview
The model favours Tromso to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in third place in the league, Tromso has shown strong form throughout the season with 11 wins from 21 matches. Their goal-scoring prowess is evident, with 40 goals scored, averaging nearly two goals per game. Additionally, their goal difference of +11 highlights their solid defensive capabilities. In contrast, Fredrikstad occupies the eighth position with a mixed record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses. With a total of 25 goals scored, they have struggled to find the back of the net consistently, as reflected in their overall goal difference of -7. Their recent form, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in the last five matches, suggests they are attempting to build momentum but still face challenges against higher-ranked opponents. The model indicates a win probability of around 60% for Tromso, supporting the projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is that Tromso has a 55% chance of winning away from home. However, a potential caveat is that if Fredrikstad can capitalise on their home advantage and find early goals, they could unsettle Tromso's game plan. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
Tromso have been the stronger side, winning 55% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Tromso are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fredrikstad vs Tromso| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.83 | 3.40 | 2.34 | 1.77 | 1.98 | 1.60 | 2.16 | |
| 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.30 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.79 | 3.55 | 2.45 | 1.80 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 2.58 | 3.10 | 2.27 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.38 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.25 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.90 | 3.49 | 2.40 | 1.81 | 2.02 | 1.60 | 2.19 | |
Betano | 2.87 | 3.40 | 2.35 | 1.78 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.18 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Tromso leads 3-0)In the last five matches between Fredrikstad and Tromso, Tromso has won three times, with two matches ending in draws, and Fredrikstad has yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a notable advantage for Tromso, highlighted by a significant 4-0 win and another 3-0 result, suggesting they have often dominated this matchup. The two draws, both 0-0, reflect a tendency for low-scoring encounters when Fredrikstad manages to avoid defeat. Fredrikstad's last win against Tromso is not within the recent fixtures, emphasizing their struggles against this opponent.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 54 | 20 | 34 | 50 | WWDWL |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 53 | 19 | 34 | 50 | LWWWW |
| 3 | Tromso | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 38 | WLLDL |
| 4 |  Molde | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 36 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  Rosenborg | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 30 | 9 | 33 | WWWLW |
| 6 |  Lillestrom | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 32 | LWWLD |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 28 | DDLWW |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 21 | WLWLD |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 40 | -19 | 19 | LLWDL |
| 16 |  Start | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 44 | -22 | 16 | LWLWL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFredrikstad have won 8 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Fredrikstad 1-1 and beat Fredrikstad 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 12L from the last 36 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Tromso have won 9 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include beat Alta 1-2 and lost to Rosenborg 5-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 8D 10L from the last 40 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFredrikstad
No reported absences
Tromso
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Fredrikstad have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; Tromso 4.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Tromso have generated 1.34 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 55% of them. They put 5.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Tromso player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
