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Al Riyadh vs NEOM Prediction, Tips & Odds

Al Riyadh vs NEOM

Pro LeagueRegular Season - 4
Al Riyadh
#16 ยท Pro League
DLWLD
VS
Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Riyadh (28,000)
NEOM
#7 ยท Pro League
LWWWW

Match Preview

The model favours NEOM to win this match against Al Riyadh, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. NEOM currently sits in 5th place in the league, having started their season with a win. With 2 goals scored and only 1 conceded in their opening match, they have demonstrated a solid attacking capability and a resilient defence. Their recent form shows they are in good shape, with four wins in their last five matches, highlighting their competitive edge. In contrast, Al Riyadh finds themselves at the bottom of the standings in 17th place, having lost their opening match. They have scored 2 goals but conceded 4, resulting in a negative goal difference. Their recent form, which includes two wins, two draws, and one loss over their last five matches, suggests they can be competitive, but they will need to improve their defensive performance significantly to challenge NEOM. The model gives NEOM a strong win probability, reflecting their current form and position. However, one caveat is that Al Riyadh could capitalize on any defensive lapses from NEOM, potentially leading to a more competitive match than expected. For a full understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team explains its in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.

Head to Head

Last 2 Meetings (NEOM leads 2-0)
0 Al Riyadh0 Draw2 NEOM
06 Feb
NEOM
1-0
Al Riyadh
Pro League
Sept 25
Al Riyadh
2-3
NEOM
Pro League

NEOM hold the edge in this fixture, winning 2 of the last 2 meetings with 0 draws and 0 Al Riyadh wins. The record points to a tie NEOM have controlled for years, though the draws show Al Riyadh have at times kept it tight.

Pro League Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Al-Nassr
330010289
WWW
2
Al-Ittihad FC
32105327
WWD
3
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
22007256
WW
4
Al-Ahli Jeddah
22005056
WW
5
Al-Qadisiyah FC
32015236
WLW
6
Al-Ettifaq
32017526
LWW
7
NEOM
32014316
LWW
16
Al Riyadh
3012511-61
DLL
17
Al-Faisaly FC
200226-40
LL
18
Al-Fateh
200204-40
LL

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
Al RiyadhHome
0W0D1L
1 playedGF 0 ยท GA 40.00 pts/game
NEOMAway
1W0D0L
1 playedGF 2 ยท GA 03.00 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
Al RiyadhNEOM
1.25Goals p.g.1.3
1.75Goals conceded p.g.1.11
17%Clean sheets30%
25%Win rate44%
3Avg goals in match2.41
1.39xG per game1.73
-0.09xGA per game0.41
41%Possession %52%
4.5Shots on target / game4.8
4.5Corners per game5.1
Al Riyadh
Recent Form

Al Riyadh have won 3 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Al Riyadh 0-4 and drew with Al Riyadh 2-2.

Overall, the wider run reads 6W 8D 10L from the last 24 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: Al RiyadhAll competitions
25 Aug
Al Shabab
3-3
Al Riyadh
Pro League
21 Aug
Al Riyadh
0-4
Al-Nassr
Pro League
17 Aug
Al Zulfi
0-2
Al Riyadh
King's Cup
14 Aug
Al-Ettifaq
4-2
Al Riyadh
Pro League
27 Jul
Al Riyadh
2-2
Al-Gharafa
Friendlies Clubs
21 May
Al Riyadh
1-0
Al Okhdood
Pro League
6
Win
25%
8
Draw
33%
10
Lost
42%
NEOM
Recent Form

NEOM have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Al-Faisaly FC 0-2 and beat Al-Faisaly FC 1-3.

Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 8L from the last 27 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: NEOMAll competitions
24 Aug
NEOM
0-2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Pro League
21 Aug
Al-Faisaly FC
0-2
NEOM
Pro League
18 Aug
Al-Faisaly FC
1-3
NEOM
King's Cup
14 Aug
NEOM
2-1
Al-Fayha
Pro League
31 Jul
Las Palmas
0-1
NEOM
Friendlies Clubs
27 Jul
NEOM
4-1
Al-Arabi SC
Friendlies Clubs
12
Win
44%
7
Draw
26%
8
Lost
30%

Lineups

๐Ÿ“‹

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Al Riyadh

No reported absences

NEOM

No reported absences

What's Your Prediction?

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.