Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction, Tips & Odds
Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus
Match Preview
The model favours Olympiakos Piraeus to win against Asteras Tripolis, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Olympiakos begins the season in a respectable sixth position. Despite their last five matches showing a disappointing form with one draw and four losses, their overall squad strength and experience in the league remain significant advantages. Historically, they have been consistent performers, and their ability to bounce back from a poor run could be key in this matchup. On the other hand, Asteras Tripolis sits in eighth place, but they are coming off a stronger form with two wins and three draws in their last five matches. Their resilience and ability to secure points, even in challenging games, may provide a solid foundation as the season begins. However, the lack of competitive matches this season means they may not have the same rhythm as Olympiakos. The model suggests a win probability of 60% for Olympiakos, with a projected score of 2-1. One caveat is that if Asteras can leverage their recent form and catch Olympiakos off guard, they could turn the tide in their favour. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 24% of matches. Olympiakos Piraeus average 1.1 goals per game.
Asteras Tripolis manage games at home, conceding just 1.40 goals per match. Olympiakos Piraeus score 1.07 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 19.1% probability.
Olympiakos Piraeus have been the stronger side, winning 37% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus win as the most likely scoreline at 19.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Olympiakos Piraeus are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 7.50 | 4.25 | 1.42 | 2.05 | 1.74 | 2.24 | 1.56 | |
| 7.50 | 4.10 | 1.40 | — | — | — | — | |
| 7.50 | 4.25 | 1.43 | 2.05 | 1.74 | 2.24 | 1.58 | |
Betano | 8.25 | 4.05 | 1.47 | 2.12 | 1.75 | 2.27 | 1.60 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Olympiakos Piraeus leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Asteras Tripolis and Olympiakos Piraeus, Olympiakos Piraeus has won 7 times, Asteras Tripolis has won once, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a significant advantage for Olympiakos, with several matches ending in heavy victories, including two 5-0 wins and a 5-1 win. Asteras Tripolis's solitary win came in a narrow 1-0 match, suggesting that while they have managed to draw some matches, they struggle to secure victories against Olympiakos. The last time Asteras Tripolis defeated Olympiakos was in October 2024, highlighting a challenging trend for them in this fixture.
Super League 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  OFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 |  Panathinaikos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | Asteras Tripolis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 |  Kalamata | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 13 |  Atromitos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 14 |  Iraklis 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAsteras Tripolis have won 5 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Asteras Tripolis 0-0 and beat Asteras Tripolis 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 7D 12L from the last 25 games (24% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to NEC Nijmegen 2-1 and lost to AZ Alkmaar 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 9D 8L from the last 27 games (37% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAsteras Tripolis
No reported absences
Olympiakos Piraeus
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Asteras Tripolis have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; Olympiakos Piraeus 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Olympiakos Piraeus have generated 1.85 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 37% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Olympiakos Piraeus player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
