Atromitos vs PAOK Prediction, Tips & Odds
Atromitos vs PAOK
Match Preview
The model favours PAOK to win against Atromitos, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. PAOK enters this match with a stronger recent form, having won two of their last five matches, and they sit in a higher league position, ranked 9th compared to Atromitos at 11th. This early stage of the season may not show complete statistics, but PAOK's recent performance indicates a more competitive edge. Atromitos, on the other hand, has won three matches in their last five outings, but they will need to carry that momentum into the new season. Starting the league with zero points and no matches played can create uncertainty. Their recent form shows inconsistency with two losses in their last five matches, which might impact their confidence going into this fixture. The model outputs a win probability of 60% for PAOK. However, a potential caveat is that both teams are starting fresh in the league, and early-season dynamics can lead to surprises. The full methodology, which analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs this in-house model to provide a clearer picture of the match dynamics.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 40% of matches. PAOK average 1.6 goals per game.
Atromitos manage games at home, conceding just 1.00 goals per match. PAOK score 1.61 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.1% probability.
PAOK have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-1 PAOK win as the most likely scoreline at 17.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. PAOK are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Atromitos vs PAOK| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 5.60 | 3.84 | 1.58 | 2.01 | 1.77 | 1.99 | 1.71 | |
| 5.50 | 3.90 | 1.57 | — | — | — | — | |
| 5.50 | 3.84 | 1.60 | 2.01 | 1.77 | 1.99 | 1.73 | |
Betano | 5.60 | 3.80 | 1.65 | 2.07 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (PAOK leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Atromitos and PAOK, PAOK has won 7 times, Atromitos has 1 win, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines illustrate a strong advantage for PAOK, with several matches ending in comfortable victories, including a 3-0 win and multiple 2-0 results. Atromitos' sole victory was a 2-0 win, suggesting that while they can compete, they have struggled to secure consistent results against PAOK. The last time Atromitos won against PAOK was in December 2025, indicating a challenging trend in their recent encounters.
Super League 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  OFI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 |  Panathinaikos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 |  Asteras Tripolis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | PAOK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 |  Kalamata | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 13 | Atromitos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 14 |  Iraklis 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAtromitos have won 6 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Atromitos 3-1 and beat Atromitos 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 7L from the last 25 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
PAOK have won 3 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Anderlecht 3-2 and beat Dynamo Kyiv 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 9D 8L from the last 28 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAtromitos
No reported absences
PAOK
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Atromitos have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; PAOK 4.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
PAOK have generated 1.44 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 3.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. PAOK player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
