Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Prediction, Tips & Odds
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
Match Preview
The model favours Nottingham Forest to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Aston Villa. Nottingham Forest currently sits in 13th place in the league, having played two matches this season. While they have yet to secure a win, their recent form shows some promise, with two wins in their last five matches, including a draw and a loss. Their goal-scoring ability, with two goals so far, indicates they can find the back of the net, even if their defence has allowed three goals. On the other hand, Aston Villa finds themselves in a precarious 17th position after just one match, suffering a heavy loss with no goals scored. Their form has been concerning, with only one win in the last five matches, demonstrating a struggle both offensively and defensively. The negative goal difference of -4 underscores their current difficulties, making it challenging for them to turn their season around quickly. Overall, the model gives Nottingham Forest a win probability of around 60%, with the projected score being 2-1. However, a caveat to consider is Aston Villa's potential for a bounce-back performance, especially playing at home. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Aston Villa manage games at home, conceding just 1.40 goals per match. Nottingham Forest score 1.44 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.2% probability.
Aston Villa have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Aston Villa are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.27 | 3.42 | 3.34 | 1.94 | 1.88 | 1.71 | 2.02 | |
| 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.70 | 2.15 | |
| 2.26 | 3.46 | 3.37 | 2.00 | 1.91 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.18 | 3.04 | 1.96 | 1.92 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.20 | — | — | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.31 | 3.48 | 3.40 | 2.00 | 1.94 | 1.71 | 2.04 | |
Betano | 2.25 | 3.35 | 3.25 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.20 | 1.86 | 1.81 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Aston Villa leads 5-2)Aston Villa has won 5 of the last 10 matches against Nottingham Forest, with 2 draws and 2 wins for Nottingham Forest. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches being closely contested, including three 1-1 draws and a narrow 2-1 result on two occasions. However, Aston Villa has secured some convincing victories, such as a 4-2 win and a 3-1 win, suggesting they have had the upper hand historically. Nottingham Forest last won against Aston Villa in December 2024, indicating that their recent performances in these encounters have not yielded consistent success.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Hull City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 5 |  Brentford | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | DDW |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | WDD |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | DDL |
| 17 | Aston Villa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 19 |  Fulham | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Coventry | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAston Villa have won 7 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Aston Villa 0-1 and lost to Aston Villa 2-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 4D 16L from the last 35 games (43% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Nottingham Forest have won 7 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Liverpool 2-2 and lost to Barcelona 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 11D 11L from the last 36 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAston Villa4-2-3-1Confirmed
Nottingham Forest3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersAston Villa
No reported absences
Nottingham Forest
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Aston Villa have averaged 2.8 corners per match at home; Nottingham Forest 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Aston Villa have generated 1.45 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 3.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Aston Villa player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
