Atalanta vs Venezia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Atalanta vs Venezia
Match Preview
The model favours Atalanta to win against Venezia, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Atalanta currently sits in 11th place in Serie A, having secured 6 points from their first five matches. Their recent form shows a mixed bag with two wins and three losses, but they did manage to bounce back with two victories in their last five outings. The key takeaway is their ability to score, having found the net five times, though they have also conceded seven goals, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. On the other hand, Venezia is struggling significantly this season, sitting at the bottom of the table in 20th place with no points from five matches. They have yet to register a win, with their goal difference reflecting their challenges, having scored only four goals while conceding thirteen. This poor form, illustrated by five consecutive losses, puts them in a difficult position heading into this match. The model gives Atalanta a 57.0% chance of winning, with a 24.3% chance of a draw and an 18.7% chance for Venezia to secure a victory. There is also a notable likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match at 59.0%. However, a potential concern for Atalanta could be their defensive lapses, which might allow Venezia to capitalize on any opportunities. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as analyzed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.0% probability.
Atalanta have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Atalanta are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Atalanta vs Venezia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.68 | 3.85 | 5.25 | 1.61 | 2.33 | 1.59 | 2.21 | |
| 1.65 | 3.79 | 5.45 | 1.61 | 2.34 | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.60 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.25 | |
| 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.75 | 1.62 | 2.30 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.73 | 3.96 | 5.40 | 1.67 | 2.41 | 1.59 | 2.24 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Atalanta leads 4-0)In the last five encounters between Atalanta and Venezia, Atalanta has won four times, with one match ending in a draw, while Venezia has yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a dominant performance by Atalanta, highlighted by a particularly lopsided 4-0 win and a 3-1 victory. Venezia struggled to score, managing only one goal across these matches, while Atalanta found the net 11 times. The most recent draw, a 0-0 stalemate, suggests that Venezia has not won against Atalanta since their meetings began, emphasizing Atalanta's strong historical advantage.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 11 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 | LLLWW |
| 18 |  Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 20 | Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAtalanta have won 9 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Atalanta 1-2 and beat Atalanta 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 8D 10L from the last 32 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Venezia have won 2 of their last 8 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Udinese 2-1 and lost to AC Milan 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 3D 6L from the last 16 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAtalanta
No reported absences
Venezia
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Atalanta have averaged 3.5 corners per match at home; Venezia 5.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Atalanta have generated 1.11 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 4.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Atalanta player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
