Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa Prediction, Tips & Odds
Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa
Match Preview
The model favours Necaxa to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Atletico San Luis. Despite being in the lower half of the table, Necaxa has shown slightly better form this season, sitting in 13th place with 8 points from 7 matches. Their goal difference of -3 indicates some struggles defensively, but they have managed to score 9 goals, which suggests they can find the back of the net when needed. Atletico San Luis, currently in 16th place with just 6 points, has had a challenging season thus far. Their record of 1 win, 3 draws, and 3 losses highlights their difficulties, particularly in converting draws into victories. With only 8 goals scored and 13 conceded, they have a negative goal difference of -5, reflecting issues both in attack and defense. The model's output indicates a win probability of around 55% for Necaxa, with the projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat is that both teams have struggled for consistency, and if Atletico San Luis can tighten their defense and convert chances more effectively, the outcome could swing in their favour. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, crafted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.2% probability.
Atletico San Luis have been the stronger side, winning 30% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Atletico San Luis are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.20 | 3.44 | 2.93 | 1.69 | 2.08 | 1.56 | 2.24 | |
| 2.20 | 3.70 | 2.88 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.26 | 3.74 | 3.09 | 1.73 | 2.20 | — | — | |
| 2.18 | 3.33 | 2.85 | 1.69 | 2.17 | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.25 | 2.80 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.20 | |
| 2.25 | 3.50 | 3.10 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.22 | 3.44 | 2.95 | 1.69 | 2.08 | 1.56 | 2.28 | |
Betano | 2.22 | 3.60 | 3.00 | 1.72 | 2.18 | 1.60 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 1.66 | 2.05 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Necaxa leads 6-2)Atletico San Luis has won 2, there have been 2 draws, and Necaxa has won 6 of the last 10 matches between these two teams. The scorelines indicate a slightly one-sided rivalry, with Necaxa securing several convincing victories, including a notable 4-1 win and a 3-0 result. There have been a mix of close matches, such as a 3-4 and a 2-3, but overall, Necaxa has shown dominance, particularly in league play. The last win for Atletico San Luis against Necaxa was in January 2023, highlighting a recent struggle to consistently overcome their rivals.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Toluca | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | WWWLL |
| 5 |  Club Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | WWLDW |
| 6 |  Club Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 13 | LWLWD |
| 13 | Necaxa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 | LDLDL |
| 16 | Atletico San Luis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 | LWDLD |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAtletico San Luis have won 5 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Guadalajara Chivas 0-3 and drew with CF Pachuca 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 8D 13L from the last 30 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Necaxa have won 4 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Tigres UANL 1-1 and drew with U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 7D 14L from the last 31 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAtletico San Luis3-4-2-1Confirmed
Necaxa3-4-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersAtletico San Luis
No reported absences
Necaxa
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Katia García has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Katia García to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Atletico San Luis have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; Necaxa 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Atletico San Luis have generated 1.30 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 30% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Atletico San Luis player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
