Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg Prediction, Tips & Odds
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg
Match Preview
The model favours Bayer Leverkusen to win against SC Freiburg, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned fifth in the Bundesliga, Leverkusen has had a mixed start to the season with two wins, one draw, and one loss from their four matches. They have scored 10 goals and conceded 5, demonstrating a solid goal difference of +5. Their attacking prowess is highlighted by their goal tally, but they will need to tighten their defense to improve their standings. On the other hand, SC Freiburg sits in third place with an impressive record of three wins and one draw, having yet to lose this season. They have scored 12 goals while conceding only 3, resulting in a strong goal difference of +9. Their recent form includes four wins in their last five matches, showcasing their consistency and ability to secure points. Freiburg's strong defensive record could pose a challenge for Leverkusen's attack. According to the model, Leverkusen has a 54.8% win probability, while Freiburg's chance stands at 22.1%. The prediction also suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 65.8% and both teams to score at 63.9%. One caveat for Leverkusen could be their need to address defensive lapses, which might allow Freiburg to capitalize on any mistakes. For a detailed breakdown of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.5% probability.
Bayer Leverkusen have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Bayer Leverkusen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.00 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.33 | 1.44 | 2.75 | — | — | |
| 1.78 | 4.32 | 4.52 | 1.45 | 2.80 | 1.47 | 2.53 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Bayer Leverkusen leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg, Bayer Leverkusen has won 5 times, there have been 3 draws, and SC Freiburg has won 2 matches. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive and one-sided encounters, with Leverkusen achieving a notable 5-1 victory. While there have been tight matches, such as the recent 3-3 draw and several 2-1 results, SC Freiburg's last win against Leverkusen was in December 2021, suggesting a challenging trend for Freiburg in this matchup. Overall, Leverkusen holds a stronger head-to-head record in this period.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 10 | WWDW |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 |  FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | LDWW |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 | WDWL |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | WLWD |
| 16 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | WLLL |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBayer Leverkusen have won 8 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat RB Leipzig 2-0 and beat Celje 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 9D 7L from the last 32 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
SC Freiburg have won 5 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 and beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 4D 12L from the last 37 games (57% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBayer Leverkusen
No reported absences
SC Freiburg
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Bayer Leverkusen have averaged 3.2 corners per match at home; SC Freiburg 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Bayer Leverkusen have generated 1.51 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Bayer Leverkusen player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
