Belarus vs San Marino Prediction, Tips & Odds
Belarus vs San Marino
Match Preview
Belarus faces San Marino in a knockout match of the UEFA Nations League, with both teams eager to secure their progression in a stage where the stakes are high—win or be eliminated. Recent competitive form suggests a contrast in momentum, with Belarus showing some resilience in their last eight matches, notably securing two draws against Denmark and Greece, alongside four victories in friendlies. In contrast, San Marino has struggled significantly, recording several heavy defeats and failing to secure a win in their recent outings. Although the FIFA rankings and tournament histories for both teams are not provided, the recent form indicates that Belarus may have the psychological edge. Their ability to score and maintain competitive matches against stronger opponents suggests a level of confidence that San Marino has yet to find, given their string of losses and inability to convert draws into wins. Both squads come into this fixture without reported absentees, which means they can field their full strength. However, the nature of knockout football means that even a slight lapse in performance can be costly. The neutral venue adds another layer of unpredictability, as neither team will have the advantage of familiar surroundings. In summary, while Belarus appears to be in a better competitive state heading into this matchup, the unpredictability of knockout tournaments means that anything can happen on the day. The Daily Punt Analysis Team emphasizes that the prediction is based on an in-house model that considers the fixture's context and recent performances, though no specific probabilities are available for this match.
About the Teams
Belarus
Profile data not available yet.
San Marino
Profile data not available yet.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Belarus have kept a clean sheet in 31% of matches. San Marino average 0.4 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (1.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 22.0% probability.
Belarus have been the stronger side, winning 31% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Belarus win as the most likely scoreline at 22.0% probability. 5 of the top six outcomes feature Belarus clean sheets, in line with their 31% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Belarus are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Belarus vs San Marino| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.06 | 12.50 | 43.00 | 1.50 | 2.38 | 4.50 | 1.16 | |
| 1.04 | 11.00 | 34.00 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 4.20 | 1.20 | |
| 1.06 | 13.55 | 43.44 | 1.53 | 2.45 | — | — | |
| 1.07 | 8.30 | 19.24 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.06 | 11.00 | 41.00 | — | — | 4.40 | 1.18 | |
| 1.06 | 12.00 | 26.00 | 1.53 | 2.38 | 4.00 | 1.22 | |
| 1.07 | 13.20 | 45.00 | 1.50 | 2.38 | 4.50 | 1.17 | |
Betano | 1.09 | 9.75 | 37.00 | 1.53 | 2.45 | 3.85 | 1.22 |
BetVictor | 1.06 | 11.00 | 36.00 | 1.51 | 2.34 | 4.40 | 1.17 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 2 Meetings (Belarus leads 2-0)Belarus has won both of their competitive meetings against San Marino, with a record of 2 wins and 0 draws. The matches took place in 2018, with Belarus winning 5-0 at home and 2-0 away. Given that these encounters are from five years ago, they do not provide relevant insights into the current capabilities of either team. Additionally, with only two competitive matches in the head-to-head record, it is difficult to assert any definitive trend between these sides.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonBelarus have won 2 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat San Marino 4-0 and drew with Burkina Faso 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 4D 5L from the last 13 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
San Marino have won 0 of their last 6 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to San Marino 4-0 and lost to Azerbaijan 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 0W 1D 12L from the last 13 games (0% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
National-team lineups are genuinely unknown until 1 to 2 hours before kick-off, when the starting XI is confirmed. Until then, only predicted lineups are possible.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBelarus
No reported absences
San Marino
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Alexandros Tsakalidis has averaged 8.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Belarus have averaged 3.2 corners per match at home; San Marino 2.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 3.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Belarus have generated 0.68 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 31% of them. They put 2.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Belarus player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.