Bulgaria vs Estonia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Bulgaria vs Estonia
Match Preview
Bulgaria and Estonia face off in a knockout match in the UEFA Nations League, with both teams looking to advance in a tournament that has yet to see them compete in the group stage. As such, this match represents a critical opportunity for both sides to secure their place in the next round. Recent competitive form suggests contrasting trajectories for the two teams. Bulgaria's recent performances include two draws and six losses in their last eight competitive matches, highlighting struggles in consistency and defensive solidity. Meanwhile, Estonia has managed to secure three wins in that same period, including two narrow victories against Lithuania and the Faroe Islands, which may boost their confidence heading into this encounter. Despite the lack of available FIFA rankings and tournament pedigree, Estonia's slightly better recent form could give them an edge. Both teams have no reported absentees, meaning they can field their strongest line-ups. The neutral venue could mitigate any potential home advantage, making the match more about current form and tactical execution. One caveat to consider is the limited competitive data for both teams, which can lead to unpredictability in tournament settings. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has evaluated this fixture through an in-house model that considers aggregated bookmaker probabilities and tournament context, but no specific model output is available for this match.
About the Teams
Bulgaria
Profile data not available yet.
Estonia
Profile data not available yet.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Bulgaria manage games at home, conceding just 2.23 goals per match. Estonia score 0.92 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 19.6% probability.
Bulgaria have been the stronger side, winning 23% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Bulgaria win as the most likely scoreline at 19.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Bulgaria clean sheets, in line with their 15% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Bulgaria are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Bulgaria vs Estonia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.75 | 3.60 | 5.15 | 2.33 | 1.62 | 2.12 | 1.64 | |
| 1.67 | 3.25 | 5.00 | 2.20 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| 1.75 | 3.52 | 5.32 | 2.34 | 1.62 | — | — | |
| 1.58 | 3.25 | 4.84 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.30 | 4.80 | — | — | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 1.70 | 3.40 | 5.25 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 1.77 | 3.64 | 5.21 | 2.37 | 1.64 | 2.12 | 1.66 | |
Betano | 1.80 | 3.55 | 5.30 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 2.12 | 1.65 |
BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.50 | 5.00 | 2.17 | 1.59 | 2.10 | 1.65 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)Bulgaria and Estonia have faced each other once in their history, resulting in 0 wins for Bulgaria, 0 wins for Estonia, and 1 draw. This single competitive match took place in September 2026 and ended in a 0-0 stalemate. With only one meeting to analyze, it is difficult to draw any meaningful conclusions about a trend or pattern between the two teams.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonBulgaria have won 1 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Bulgaria 0-0 and lost to Bulgaria 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 3W 2D 8L from the last 13 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Estonia have won 1 of their last 7 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Bulgaria 0-0 and drew with Iceland 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 5D 4L from the last 13 games (31% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedBulgaria4-3-3Confirmed
Estonia5-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersBulgaria
No reported absences
Estonia
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Goga Kikacheishvili has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Bulgaria have averaged 2.8 corners per match at home; Estonia 3.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Bulgaria have generated 0.57 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 23% of them. They put 2.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Bulgaria player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.