Caernarfon Town vs FC Levadia Tallinn Prediction, Tips & Odds
Caernarfon Town vs FC Levadia Tallinn
Match Preview
The model favours FC Levadia Tallinn to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. FC Levadia Tallinn enters this fixture with a solid recent form, having secured three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. Their overall performance this season suggests a higher consistency, which is crucial in knockout competitions like the UEFA Europa Conference League. In contrast, Caernarfon Town has also shown resilience, winning four of their last five matches, but their recent form includes one loss that could impact their confidence. While they have demonstrated the ability to secure victories, their overall season standing and the context of facing a team like FC Levadia Tallinn may pose a challenge. The model indicates a win probability of 59.0% for FC Levadia Tallinn, with a projected score of 2-1. While the data leans heavily in favour of the Estonian side, the caveat lies in the unpredictable nature of knockout games, where a single lapse could shift the momentum. For a detailed explanation of our predictions, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.8% probability.
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 67% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 FC Levadia Tallinn win as the most likely scoreline at 13.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. FC Levadia Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Caernarfon Town vs FC Levadia Tallinn| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.10 | 3.85 | 1.68 | 1.53 | 2.38 | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| 4.40 | 4.40 | 1.60 | 1.46 | 2.38 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
| 4.20 | 4.10 | 1.60 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 3.78 | 4.21 | 1.66 | 1.49 | 2.43 | — | — | |
| 3.92 | 3.69 | 1.60 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.70 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.40 | |
| 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.65 | 1.53 | 2.38 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 4.18 | 4.20 | 1.68 | 1.47 | 2.35 | 1.52 | 2.37 | |
| 4.35 | 4.25 | 1.64 | 1.52 | 2.32 | 1.56 | 2.25 | |
| 4.40 | 3.90 | 1.67 | 1.50 | 2.45 | 1.53 | 2.40 | |
Betano | 4.65 | 4.05 | 1.62 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Superbet | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.70 | 1.52 | 2.37 | 1.54 | 2.32 |
BetVictor | 4.33 | 4.10 | 1.67 | 1.51 | 2.34 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (FC Levadia Tallinn leads 1-0)In their only previous encounter, FC Levadia Tallinn defeated Caernarfon Town with a score of 3-0. This result indicates a one-sided match, with FC Levadia Tallinn securing a comfortable victory. The scoreline reflects a significant margin, suggesting that Caernarfon Town struggled to compete effectively. As it stands, there have been no draws and no wins for Caernarfon Town in their head-to-head history against FC Levadia Tallinn. Since this match occurred recently, it highlights the challenges Caernarfon Town faced in that fixture.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonCaernarfon Town have won 3 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to FC Levadia Tallinn 0-5 and beat Penybont 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 0D 5L from the last 11 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
FC Levadia Tallinn have won 12 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Caernarfon Town 0-5 and beat Trans Narva 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 6D 4L from the last 30 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCaernarfon Town
No reported absences
FC Levadia Tallinn
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Svegzda has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by D. Svegzda to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Caernarfon Town average 1.6 goals per match at home; FC Levadia Tallinn 2.6 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 67% of their matches and averaging 2.6 goals per game. FC Levadia Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
