Celta Vigo vs Alaves Prediction, Tips & Odds
Celta Vigo vs Alaves
Match Preview
The model favours Alaves to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Celta Vigo. Alaves currently sits in a solid 6th position in La Liga, having accumulated 11 points from their first seven matches. Their season has been marked by a balanced attack, scoring 11 goals while conceding only 6, giving them a goal difference of +5. With two wins in their last five matches, they are starting to find their rhythm. Celta Vigo, on the other hand, is positioned 14th with just 7 points from their seven outings. Their form has been less impressive, with only one win to show for their efforts, alongside four draws and two losses. With a goal tally of 8 and a goal difference of +2, they have struggled to convert draws into victories, reflecting a lack of offensive firepower at critical moments. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 55% for Alaves, with the projected score being 2-1. However, a potential caveat is Celta Vigo's home advantage, which could play a significant role in the match dynamics. For a detailed breakdown of how these predictions were generated, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Celta Vigo manage games at home, conceding just 1.30 goals per match. Alaves score 1.60 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.7% probability.
Celta Vigo have been the stronger side, winning 32% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Celta Vigo clean sheets, in line with their 30% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Celta Vigo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Celta Vigo vs Alaves| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.18 | 3.34 | 3.56 | 2.23 | 1.67 | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
| 2.25 | 3.26 | 3.55 | 2.31 | 1.66 | — | — | |
| 2.11 | 2.97 | 3.13 | 2.20 | 1.69 | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 2.23 | 3.42 | 3.64 | 2.30 | 1.72 | 1.90 | 1.82 | |
Betano | 2.12 | 3.25 | 3.70 | 2.22 | 1.70 | 1.90 | 1.83 |
BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.13 | 3.30 | 2.12 | 1.62 | 1.90 | 1.80 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Celta Vigo leads 6-2)Celta Vigo holds a strong head-to-head record against Alaves, winning 6 of their last 10 encounters, while Alaves has won 2 and 2 matches ended in a draw. The scorelines indicate that Celta Vigo has often dominated, with several heavy wins, including a notable 4-0 victory in May 2022. While Alaves managed a 3-0 win in April 2024, such results have been rare. The matches have featured a mix of close contests and more decisive outcomes, but overall, Celta Vigo's consistency in securing victories suggests a favorable historical trend.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 7 | 27 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 19 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 18 | WLWWL |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 14 | DLWWD |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 13 | WWLWD |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 11 | LDLLW |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 8 | DWDDD |
| 18 |  Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 6 | DWLDL |
| 19 |  Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 | DLWLL |
| 20 |  Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | DLLDD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCelta Vigo have won 6 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include beat Celta Vigo 5-0 and lost to Celta Vigo 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 13D 12L from the last 37 games (32% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Alaves have won 4 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Alaves 0-0 and drew with Rayo Vallecano 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 8L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCelta Vigo
No reported absences
Alaves
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Celta Vigo have averaged 3.2 corners per match at home; Alaves 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Celta Vigo have generated 0.95 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 32% of them. They put 3.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Celta Vigo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
