Villarreal vs Elche Prediction, Tips & Odds
Villarreal vs Elche
Match Preview
The model favours Villarreal to win against Elche, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Villarreal currently sits in 9th place in La Liga, having played 7 matches this season, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. They have scored 13 goals while conceding 12, resulting in a positive goal difference of 1. Despite a mixed recent form, winning only 2 of their last 5 matches, their overall attacking capabilities and slight edge in goal difference suggest they are positioned to take advantage of Elche's struggles. Elche, on the other hand, is in the relegation zone at 18th place, with just 1 win from 7 matches and a total of 5 points. They have scored 11 goals but have conceded 17, leading to a negative goal difference of -6. Their recent form has been poor, with only 1 win and 3 losses in their last 5 matches, indicating difficulties both defensively and offensively. This puts them at a disadvantage against Villarreal, who have shown more resilience despite their recent inconsistencies. The model output indicates a win probability of around 60% for Villarreal, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat is Villarreal's recent trend of conceding goals, which could allow Elche to capitalise if they find their scoring form. The full methodology of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as analysed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.8% probability.
Villarreal have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Villarreal win as the most likely scoreline at 12.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Villarreal clean sheets, in line with their 8% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Villarreal are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Villarreal vs Elche| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.47 | 4.75 | 6.55 | 1.43 | 2.58 | 1.58 | 2.23 | |
| 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.50 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.46 | 4.84 | 6.04 | 1.48 | 2.65 | — | — | |
| 1.42 | 4.29 | 5.22 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.40 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 1.48 | 4.33 | 6.00 | 1.50 | 2.62 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.51 | 4.88 | 6.73 | 1.43 | 2.58 | 1.58 | 2.26 | |
Betano | 1.47 | 4.55 | 6.50 | 1.50 | 2.70 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.75 | 1.45 | 2.50 | 1.55 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Villarreal leads 5-2)The head-to-head record between Villarreal and Elche shows Villarreal winning 5 times, with 3 draws and 2 victories for Elche over their last 10 encounters. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive matches, with Villarreal achieving several convincing wins, including a notable 4-0 victory. However, Elche has also managed to secure a couple of wins, highlighting that they can compete effectively, as shown by their 3-1 win in February 2023. The presence of three draws suggests some closely contested fixtures, but Villarreal's overall dominance is evident in their higher win count and multiple heavy victories.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 7 | 27 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 19 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 18 | WLWWL |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 13 | LWWDL |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 13 | WWLWD |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 8 | LWWLL |
| 17 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 6 | DWLDL |
| 18 |  Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 | LLDWD |
| 19 |  Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 | DLWLL |
| 20 |  Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | DLLDD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVillarreal have won 9 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Villarreal 3-1 and lost to Villarreal 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 15L from the last 37 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Elche have won 3 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include beat Elche 1-3 and drew with Athletic Club 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 11D 14L from the last 33 games (24% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersVillarreal
No reported absences
Elche
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Villarreal have averaged 7.1 corners per match at home; Elche 4.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Villarreal have generated 1.66 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Villarreal player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.