Benfica vs Celtic Prediction, Tips & Odds
Benfica vs Celtic
Match Preview
The model favours Benfica to win against Celtic, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Benfica currently sits in 7th place in the league standings, having won their opening match of the season with a strong performance, scoring two goals while keeping a clean sheet. Their recent form is also impressive, with four wins in their last five matches, suggesting a team that is building momentum and confidence. Celtic, on the other hand, finds themselves in 28th position after losing their first match of the season, conceding three goals while only managing to score once. Their form in the last five matches shows a troubling trend, with three losses, indicating potential struggles in both defence and attack. This is a concerning start for a team looking to make a mark in the competition. The model gives Benfica a strong win probability, reflecting their current form and position, while projecting a score of 2-1. One key market percentage to note is their strong home advantage. However, a caveat for this prediction is that if Celtic can turn around their form and find their scoring touch, they could pose a threat. The full method used for this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.6% probability.
Benfica have been the stronger side, winning 68% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Benfica win as the most likely scoreline at 14.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Benfica clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Benfica are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Benfica vs Celtic| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.25 | 6.25 | 11.75 | 1.41 | 2.62 | 1.87 | 1.83 | |
| 1.22 | 6.00 | 11.00 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| 1.24 | 6.52 | 10.37 | 1.43 | 2.80 | — | — | |
| 1.22 | 5.22 | 7.62 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.25 | 5.80 | 10.00 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.91 | |
| 1.25 | 5.75 | 9.00 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 1.27 | 6.33 | 11.90 | 1.41 | 2.62 | 1.87 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 1.29 | 6.00 | 9.50 | 1.47 | 2.77 | 1.85 | 1.90 |
BetVictor | 1.22 | 5.75 | 10.00 | 1.43 | 2.56 | 1.80 | 1.87 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 2 Meetings (Benfica leads 1-0)The head-to-head record between Benfica and Celtic shows Benfica winning 1 match, with 1 draw, while Celtic has not won any. The scorelines indicate a competitive history, with one match ending in a narrow 2-1 victory for Benfica and the other resulting in a goalless draw. This suggests that while Benfica has had the upper hand, the encounters have generally been tight, with no heavy wins. Celtic's last victory over Benfica remains elusive, as they have not secured a win in their previous two meetings.
UEFA Europa League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 34 |  Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
| 36 |  NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBenfica have won 14 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Benfica 3-1 and beat Benfica 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 6D 5L from the last 34 games (68% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Celtic have won 10 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Celtic 0-2 and lost to Rangers 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 24W 5D 8L from the last 37 games (65% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBenfica
No reported absences
Celtic
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Benfica have averaged 7.0 corners per match at home; Celtic 6.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 8.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Benfica have generated 2.89 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 68% of them. They put 8.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Benfica player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
