Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom
Match Preview
The model favours Sparta Praha to win against Lillestrom, with a projected scoreline of 3-1. Sparta Praha currently sits in 3rd place in their league group, boasting a solid start with one win from one match, having scored four goals while conceding just one. Their recent form shows four victories in their last five matches, indicating strong momentum as they head into this fixture. In contrast, Lillestrom finds themselves at the bottom of the standings in 24th place after one match, where they suffered a loss and managed to score just one goal while conceding two. Their recent form includes three wins in their last five matches, but they will need to overcome their shaky start in this competition to compete effectively against a strong opponent like Sparta Praha. The model predicts a win probability of 70% for Sparta Praha, with a 25% chance of a draw, and a 5% chance of a Lillestrom victory. While the data strongly supports Sparta's position as the favourite, a potential caveat is that Lillestrom could surprise if they manage to exploit any defensive lapses from Sparta. For a detailed breakdown of how this prediction was reached, please see the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures using expected goals and actual results over the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.8% probability.
Sparta Praha have been the stronger side, winning 59% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Sparta Praha win as the most likely scoreline at 14.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Sparta Praha clean sheets, in line with their 44% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Sparta Praha are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.35 | 5.25 | 8.70 | 1.59 | 2.38 | 1.84 | 1.86 | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 8.00 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.87 | 1.90 | |
| 1.37 | 5.11 | 7.72 | 1.56 | 2.43 | — | — | |
| 1.30 | 4.48 | 6.57 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.35 | 4.80 | 8.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 1.37 | 5.32 | 8.80 | 1.62 | 2.42 | 1.84 | 1.88 | |
Betano | 1.38 | 5.20 | 7.70 | 1.60 | 2.40 | 1.87 | 1.88 |
BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.00 | 1.53 | 2.29 | 1.78 | 1.91 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
UEFA Europa League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24 | Lillestrom | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 34 |  Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
| 36 |  NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSparta Praha have won 12 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Vysočina Jihlava 5-3 and beat FK Jablonec 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 4D 9L from the last 32 games (59% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lillestrom have won 8 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Bærum 1-5 and lost to Viking 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 7D 17L from the last 42 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSparta Praha
No reported absences
Lillestrom
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Sparta Praha have averaged 5.9 corners per match at home; Lillestrom 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sparta Praha have generated 2.03 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 59% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sparta Praha player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
