Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan Prediction, Tips & Odds
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan
Match Preview
The model favours Red Bull Salzburg to win, with a projected scoreline of 2-0. After a strong start to the UEFA Europa League, Salzburg currently sits in 14th position with a perfect record of one win from one match, having scored one goal and conceded none. Their impressive form extends beyond this competition, as they have secured four wins and one draw in their last five matches, showcasing a solid attacking and defensive balance. On the other hand, AC Milan finds themselves in a challenging position, ranked 30th with one match played, which resulted in a loss. They have yet to score in the tournament, conceding two goals in their opening match. Despite a mix of results in their recent league form—two wins, two draws, and one loss—they will need to improve significantly to turn their fortunes around and compete effectively against Salzburg. The model indicates a win probability of 65% for Salzburg, with a projected score of 2-0. However, a key caveat is that if AC Milan can find their scoring touch early in the match, they could pose a significant threat. For a detailed explanation of our prediction methodology, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.9% probability.
Red Bull Salzburg have been the stronger side, winning 53% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Red Bull Salzburg are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.05 | 3.95 | 1.83 | 1.64 | 2.27 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.80 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 4.01 | 3.97 | 1.81 | 1.61 | 2.31 | — | — | |
| 3.40 | 3.33 | 1.81 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.90 | 3.70 | 1.85 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.25 | |
| 4.00 | 3.75 | 1.75 | 1.62 | 2.30 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 4.11 | 4.01 | 1.86 | 1.67 | 2.31 | 1.57 | 2.28 | |
Betano | 4.10 | 3.90 | 1.82 | 1.67 | 2.27 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
BetVictor | 3.90 | 3.75 | 1.75 | 1.59 | 2.17 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 2 Meetings (AC Milan leads 1-0)In the last two matches between Red Bull Salzburg and AC Milan, AC Milan has won once, and there has been one draw, giving a record of 0 wins for Salzburg, 1 draw, and 1 win for Milan. The scorelines indicate a notable disparity, particularly with Milan's 4-0 victory, which highlights a significant gap in performance during that fixture. The other match ended in a 1-1 draw, suggesting that while Salzburg has managed to secure a point, they have struggled to achieve a win against Milan in recent encounters. Overall, the head-to-head record shows that Salzburg has yet to claim a victory against Milan.
UEFA Europa League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 30 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 34 |  Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
| 36 |  NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRed Bull Salzburg have won 12 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Red Bull Salzburg 1-2 and beat Red Bull Salzburg 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 8D 12L from the last 43 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
AC Milan have won 8 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with AC Milan 1-1 and drew with Lazio 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 9D 9L from the last 31 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersRed Bull Salzburg
No reported absences
AC Milan
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Red Bull Salzburg have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; AC Milan 3.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Red Bull Salzburg have generated 2.07 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 53% of them. They put 6.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Red Bull Salzburg player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
