Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction, Tips & Odds
Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City
Match Preview
The model favours Nashville SC to win against Sporting Kansas City, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. Nashville currently sits at the top of the league standings, having accumulated 60 points from 27 matches with an impressive record of 18 wins, 6 draws, and just 3 losses. Their goal difference of +34 highlights their strong offensive and defensive capabilities, having scored 55 goals while conceding only 21. In contrast, Sporting Kansas City finds itself in a challenging position, occupying 15th place with only 21 points from 26 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 17 losses, combined with a troubling goal difference of -32, indicates significant struggles throughout the season. They have conceded 63 goals, the highest in the league, which underscores their defensive vulnerabilities. The model suggests a high win probability for Nashville SC, reflecting their dominant season performance. However, a potential caveat is that if Sporting Kansas City manages to exploit any defensive lapses, they could pose a threat. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team leverages an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season to generate insights.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 49.4% probability.
Nashville SC have been the stronger side, winning 57% of their matches.
Our model projects a 4-5 Sporting Kansas City win as the most likely scoreline at 49.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Nashville SC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.22 | 6.50 | 9.80 | 1.26 | 3.20 | 1.61 | 2.15 | |
| 1.20 | 6.50 | 11.00 | 1.30 | 3.40 | — | — | |
| 1.24 | 6.91 | 9.64 | 1.29 | 3.57 | — | — | |
| 1.21 | 5.51 | 7.34 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.22 | 6.00 | 9.00 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.25 | 6.00 | 9.50 | 1.30 | 3.50 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 1.27 | 6.50 | 9.00 | 1.31 | 3.50 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.75 | 8.50 | 1.33 | 3.13 | 1.60 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Nashville SC leads 3-2)The head-to-head record between Nashville SC and Sporting Kansas City stands at 3 wins for Nashville and 2 for Sporting Kansas City, with no draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches being closely contested; however, Nashville has secured three victories, including a decisive 3-0 win in their last encounter. Sporting Kansas City has also claimed two wins, but their last victory came over a year ago in June 2022, suggesting a slight edge for Nashville in recent meetings. Overall, the matches have been relatively balanced, though Nashville appears to have the upper hand historically.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 61 | 30 | 31 | 51 | DLDWL |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 59 | 22 | 37 | 63 | WWWDL |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 36 | 12 | 47 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 68 | 50 | 18 | 49 | WLDDD |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 45 | 7 | 47 | LWDWW |
| 3 |  Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 51 | 40 | 11 | 48 | WWWLL |
| 14 |  Atlanta United FC | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 27 | LDWDL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 24 | LWLLL |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 35 | 68 | -33 | 22 | DLWLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNashville SC have won 16 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Toronto FC 2-0 and beat Chicago Fire 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 10D 7L from the last 40 games (57% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sporting Kansas City have won 3 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 12. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Seattle Sounders 2-1 and beat Houston Dynamo 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 5D 22L from the last 36 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNashville SC
No reported absences
Sporting Kansas City
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Nashville SC have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; Sporting Kansas City 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Nashville SC have generated 1.68 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 57% of them. They put 5.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Nashville SC player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
