DC United vs New York Red Bulls Prediction, Tips & Odds
DC United vs New York Red Bulls
Match Preview
The model favours DC United to win this match against New York Red Bulls, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. DC United currently sits in 11th place in the standings, having accumulated 30 points from 26 matches. Their season has been marked by a mix of results, with six wins, twelve draws, and eight losses, leading to a goal difference of -8. Notably, they have shown some resilience recently, with one win, three draws, and just one loss in their last five matches. On the other hand, New York Red Bulls are positioned slightly higher in 8th place, with 33 points from the same number of games. Their record includes nine wins, six draws, and eleven losses, contributing to a goal difference of -14. However, their recent form has been inconsistent, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency may hinder their ability to secure a positive result. The model gives DC United a win probability of approximately 55%, while projecting a score of 2-1 in favour of DC United. One key market indicator suggests that DC United has a 40% chance of winning. A potential caveat to this prediction is DC United's tendency to draw matches, which could lead to a less decisive outcome. For a detailed breakdown of the methodology behind this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
DC United have been the stronger side, winning 17% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. DC United are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
DC United vs New York Red Bulls| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.88 | 3.88 | 3.50 | 1.43 | 2.46 | 1.44 | 2.55 | |
| 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.47 | 2.63 | — | — | |
| 1.88 | 4.11 | 3.62 | 1.50 | 2.59 | — | — | |
| 1.84 | 3.47 | 3.15 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.70 | 3.40 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 1.85 | 3.90 | 3.70 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
Betano | 1.88 | 4.00 | 3.70 | 1.50 | 2.67 | 1.47 | 2.57 |
BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.80 | 3.50 | 1.45 | 2.63 | 1.40 | 2.63 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (New York Red Bulls leads 5-1)In the last ten matches between DC United and New York Red Bulls, the record shows DC United with 1 win, 4 draws, and New York Red Bulls with 5 wins. This indicates a slight advantage for New York, bolstered by their ability to secure multiple wins, including a notable 4-1 victory. The fixtures have featured a mix of high-scoring and tightly contested matches, highlighted by a dramatic 4-4 draw and several low-scoring encounters, such as two 0-0 draws. DC United's last victory against New York Red Bulls was in 2025, suggesting a challenging trend for them in this matchup.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 59 | 22 | 37 | 63 | WWWDL |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 61 | 30 | 31 | 51 | DLDWL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 68 | 50 | 18 | 49 | WLDDD |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 36 | 12 | 47 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 51 | 40 | 11 | 48 | WWWLL |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 45 | 7 | 47 | LWDWW |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 36 | WLWWL |
| 12 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 30 | LDLDW |
| 14 |  Atlanta United FC | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 27 | LDWDL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 24 | LWLLL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 35 | 68 | -33 | 22 | DLWLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonDC United have won 4 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to DC United 0-1 and lost to DC United 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 16D 13L from the last 35 games (17% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
New York Red Bulls have won 5 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat New York City FC 0-1 and beat Columbus Crew 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 18L from the last 37 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersDC United
No reported absences
New York Red Bulls
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
DC United have averaged 5.9 corners per match at home; New York Red Bulls 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
DC United have generated 1.53 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 17% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. DC United player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
