AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Prediction, Tips & Odds
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Match Preview
The model favours AZ Alkmaar to win this match against Hapoel Beer Sheva, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. AZ Alkmaar currently sits in a lower league position at 26th but has shown stronger recent form with three wins in their last five matches. Their only match in the UEFA Europa League this season resulted in a loss, but their overall performance suggests they are capable of turning things around at home. On the other hand, Hapoel Beer Sheva is positioned 20th and has played one match, earning a point through a draw. Their recent form, including two wins and two draws in their last five matches, indicates they can be competitive. However, they have yet to score in this tournament, which could hinder their chances against a team like AZ Alkmaar. The model output suggests a win probability in favour of AZ Alkmaar, but one key caveat is their need to convert chances into goals, given their current goal deficit in the league. The full method of our prediction, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizes an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.3% probability.
AZ Alkmaar have been the stronger side, winning 54% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 AZ Alkmaar win as the most likely scoreline at 14.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature AZ Alkmaar clean sheets, in line with their 28% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. AZ Alkmaar are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.31 | 5.65 | 9.50 | 1.45 | 2.50 | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.50 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| 1.30 | 5.78 | 8.82 | 1.47 | 2.65 | โ | โ | |
| 1.25 | 4.94 | 7.14 | โ | โ | โ | โ | |
| 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.50 | โ | โ | 1.85 | 1.95 | |
| 1.30 | 5.25 | 9.00 | 1.50 | 2.62 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.33 | 5.73 | 9.60 | 1.45 | 2.50 | 1.80 | 1.92 | |
Betano | 1.32 | 5.50 | 8.75 | 1.52 | 2.62 | 1.83 | 1.91 |
BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.00 | 1.47 | 2.44 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
UEFA Europa League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Beลiktaล | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 20 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 26 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 34 |  Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
| 36 |  NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAZ Alkmaar have won 15 of their last 23 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat AZ Alkmaar 1-0 and drew with AZ Alkmaar 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 9D 9L from the last 39 games (54% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Hapoel Beer Sheva have won 6 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Hapoel Petah Tikva 0-2 and beat Hapoel Ramat Gan 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 4D 8L from the last 22 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAZ Alkmaar
No reported absences
Hapoel Beer Sheva
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
AZ Alkmaar have averaged 5.7 corners per match at home; Hapoel Beer Sheva 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
AZ Alkmaar have generated 2.19 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 54% of them. They put 6.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. AZ Alkmaar player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
