Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge Prediction, Tips & Odds
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge
Match Preview
The model favours Charleroi to win against Cercle Brugge, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Charleroi currently sits in 4th place in the Jupiler Pro League, boasting a solid start to the season with four wins from five matches. Their offensive capabilities are highlighted by 11 goals scored, while they have conceded just 5, resulting in a goal difference of +6. This indicates a strong attacking unit coupled with a relatively sturdy defence. In contrast, Cercle Brugge finds itself in 14th place and has struggled significantly this season. With no wins in their first five matches, they have managed just 2 points from 2 draws and have conceded 10 goals while scoring only 5. Their goal difference of -5 reflects ongoing defensive issues and a lack of offensive potency, which could be detrimental against a confident Charleroi side. The model suggests a win probability of 70% for Charleroi, with a projected score of 2-0. While Charleroi appears to be the stronger side on paper, an unexpected turnaround in form from Cercle Brugge could pose a challenge. For a deeper understanding of this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.8% probability.
Charleroi have been the stronger side, winning 37% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Charleroi are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.62 | 4.05 | 4.80 | 1.60 | 2.08 | 1.65 | 2.08 | |
| 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.66 | 4.30 | 4.93 | 1.68 | 2.28 | — | — | |
| 1.73 | 3.46 | 3.57 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.50 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 1.62 | 3.70 | 4.75 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.66 | 4.20 | 4.87 | 1.68 | 2.22 | 1.65 | 2.11 | |
Betano | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.35 | 1.62 | 2.35 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.80 | 1.63 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Charleroi and Cercle Brugge stands at 4 wins for each team and 2 draws over their last 10 matches. The scorelines indicate a mix of tight and more decisive results, with several matches featuring a margin of two goals or more, including a notable 5-0 victory for Charleroi and a 4-1 win for Cercle Brugge. Low-scoring draws were also present, with two matches ending 0-0 and one ending 1-1. Both teams have shown the ability to win against each other, reflecting a competitive balance in their recent encounters.
Jupiler Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gent | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Union St. Gilloise | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Club Brugge KV | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WLWWW |
| 4 | Charleroi | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 12 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  Zulte Waregem | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 6 |  Standard Liege | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 11 | WWWDD |
| 14 | Cercle Brugge | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 | LLLDD |
| 16 |  RAAL La Louvière | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 17 |  OH Leuven | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 | LLLLL |
| 18 |  Kortrijk | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCharleroi have won 5 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Union St. Gilloise 2-3 and beat KV Mechelen 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 6D 13L from the last 30 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Cercle Brugge have won 6 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Club Brugge KV 1-0 and drew with Monaco 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 6D 10L from the last 24 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCharleroi4-2-3-1Confirmed
Cercle Brugge3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersCharleroi
No reported absences
Cercle Brugge
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Letellier Anthony has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Letellier Anthony to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Charleroi average 1.5 goals per match at home; Cercle Brugge 1.5 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Charleroi have generated 1.50 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 37% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Charleroi player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
