Chelsea vs Hull City Prediction, Tips & Odds
Chelsea vs Hull City
Match Preview
The model favours Chelsea to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against Hull City. Chelsea currently sits in 8th place in the Premier League standings, having won their opening match of the season. Their attack has shown promise, scoring three goals so far, though they have also conceded two, which highlights some defensive vulnerabilities. Overall, Chelsea's recent form has been strong, with four wins in their last five matches, indicating a team that is gaining momentum. On the other hand, Hull City is performing exceptionally well, currently occupying 2nd place with two wins from two matches. They have not only scored three goals but have also kept a clean sheet, which speaks to their solid defensive organization. However, their recent form shows a mix of results with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, suggesting they may not be as consistent as their early season position implies. The model output indicates a win probability of around 60% for Chelsea, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage is Chelsea's 55% chance of scoring over 1.5 goals. One potential caveat for Chelsea is the chance that their defensive frailties could be exploited by Hull's counter-attacking style. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.9% probability.
Chelsea have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Chelsea win as the most likely scoreline at 13.9% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Chelsea clean sheets, in line with their 15% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Chelsea are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Chelsea vs Hull City| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.24 | 6.80 | 12.75 | 1.38 | 2.76 | 1.89 | 1.81 | |
| 1.22 | 7.00 | 13.00 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 1.87 | 1.95 | |
| 1.22 | 7.12 | 13.52 | 1.42 | 2.92 | — | — | |
| 1.21 | 6.18 | 9.64 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.22 | 6.00 | 11.00 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.20 | 6.50 | 12.00 | 1.40 | 3.00 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 1.26 | 6.91 | 12.90 | 1.38 | 2.76 | 1.89 | 1.83 | |
Betano | 1.25 | 6.60 | 13.50 | 1.42 | 2.95 | 1.83 | 1.91 |
BetVictor | 1.20 | 7.00 | 13.00 | 1.40 | 2.66 | 1.87 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (Chelsea leads 9-0)In the last nine matches between Chelsea and Hull City, Chelsea has won all nine encounters, with Hull City failing to secure a single victory. The scorelines indicate a dominant performance by Chelsea, featuring several heavy wins, including two 4-0 results and a 3-2 match that suggests Hull City has struggled to keep pace. The matches have largely been low-scoring for Hull City, as they have scored only five goals across these fixtures. Hull City's last win against Chelsea was not recorded in this sample, highlighting a significant one-sided trend in their head-to-head history.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 | Hull City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 4 | Chelsea | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 5 |  Brentford | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | DDW |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | WDD |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 19 |  Fulham | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Coventry | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonChelsea have won 9 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include beat Brighton 4-3 and beat Luton 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 4D 14L from the last 33 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Hull City have won 7 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Coventry 0-1 and drew with Stoke City 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 9L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedChelsea3-4-2-1Confirmed
Hull City5-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersChelsea
No reported absences
Hull City
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Chelsea average 2.0 goals per match at home; Hull City 1.2 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Chelsea have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 45% of their matches and averaging 2.0 goals per game. Chelsea player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
