Club America vs Puebla Prediction, Tips & Odds
Club America vs Puebla
Match Preview
The model favours Club America to win against Puebla, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Club America currently sits in third place in the Liga MX standings, having played three matches this season. They are unbeaten with two wins and one draw, scoring five goals while conceding just one. Their strong goal difference of plus four highlights their defensive solidity and attacking prowess, making them a formidable opponent. On the other hand, Puebla is positioned in eleventh place, with a record of one win, one draw, and one loss from their three matches. They have scored three goals and conceded three, resulting in a goal difference of zero. Unfortunately, their recent form has been poor, with four losses in their last five matches, indicating struggles in both defense and attack. This inconsistency could hinder their ability to compete effectively against a strong side like Club America. The model outputs a win probability of approximately 65% for Club America, suggesting they are likely to secure the three points. However, a potential caveat to consider is if Puebla can unexpectedly turn their form around, which could create an upset. For a detailed explanation of how this prediction was reached, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that assesses fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.0% probability.
Club America have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Club America win as the most likely scoreline at 14.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Club America clean sheets, in line with their 32% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Club America are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Club America vs Puebla| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.35 | 4.85 | 8.25 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
| 1.50 | 4.25 | 5.65 | 1.60 | 2.08 | 1.73 | 1.97 | |
| 1.47 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 1.53 | 4.49 | 6.10 | 1.69 | 2.25 | — | — | |
| 1.49 | 4.04 | 5.42 | 1.66 | 2.21 | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 3.90 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| 1.55 | 4.20 | 6.00 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.51 | 4.25 | 5.69 | 1.60 | 2.08 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.43 | 4.40 | 6.40 | 1.63 | 2.20 | 1.75 | 1.90 | |
Betano | 1.55 | 4.30 | 5.60 | 1.67 | 2.27 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
Superbet | 1.42 | 4.75 | 6.70 | 1.63 | 2.30 | 1.82 | 1.92 |
BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.75 | 1.63 | 2.11 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Club America leads 8-1)In the last ten matches between Club America and Puebla, Club America has won 8 times, with 1 draw and 1 win for Puebla. The scorelines indicate a dominant performance from Club America, highlighted by several heavy victories, including a 4-0 win and a 5-1 win. Puebla's lone victory came in August 2024, suggesting a long stretch of difficulty against Club America. The matches have generally favored Club America, with only one draw indicating a tendency for decisive outcomes rather than closely contested games.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Toluca | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 3 | Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | WWWLL |
| 5 |  Club Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | WWLDW |
| 6 |  Club Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 13 | LWLWD |
| 7 | Puebla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 13 | WLWWD |
| 16 |  Atletico San Luis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 | LWDLD |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonClub America have won 9 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Club America 2-2 and beat Club America 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 11D 9L from the last 37 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Puebla have won 4 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 12. Their recent away fixtures include beat Puebla 0-1 and lost to Club America 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 5D 16L from the last 29 games (28% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersClub America
No reported absences
Puebla
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Club America have averaged 6.5 corners per match at home; Puebla 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Club America have generated 1.30 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 6.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Club America player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
