Club Tijuana vs Puebla Prediction, Tips & Odds
Club Tijuana vs Puebla
Match Preview
The model favours Club Tijuana to win this match against Puebla, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Both teams sit closely in the standings, with Tijuana in 8th place and Puebla just behind in 9th. Despite their similar point totals, Tijuana has a slight edge with a better goal difference, scoring 14 goals while conceding 13, compared to Puebla's 11 goals scored and 12 conceded. Tijuana's season has been marked by inconsistency, as evidenced by their recent form of one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches. However, their ability to find the net more frequently than Puebla could play a crucial role in this matchup. The marginally better goal difference indicates that they have been able to convert chances into goals at a slightly higher rate, which could be significant in a closely contested game. On the other hand, Puebla has struggled similarly, with the same recent form of one win, one draw, and three losses. Their goal-scoring woes, reflected in their lower total of goals scored this season, may hinder their chances against a Tijuana side that has shown a slightly better attacking performance. The pressure is on Puebla to find their scoring touch if they wish to overcome Tijuana in this fixture. The model output gives Club Tijuana a win probability of approximately 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. A caveat to consider is that both teams have demonstrated similar inconsistencies, meaning that an upset is certainly within the realm of possibility. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the analysis team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.6% probability.
Club Tijuana have been the stronger side, winning 31% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Club Tijuana clean sheets, in line with their 25% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Club Tijuana are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Club Tijuana vs Puebla| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.25 | 1.72 | 2.03 | 1.68 | 2.03 | |
| 1.80 | 3.70 | 4.00 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 1.74 | 3.96 | 4.77 | 1.78 | 2.13 | — | — | |
| 1.77 | 3.45 | 3.98 | 1.80 | 2.04 | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.20 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.05 | |
| 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.50 | 1.73 | 2.08 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.72 | 3.80 | 4.25 | 1.72 | 2.03 | 1.68 | 2.06 | |
Betano | 1.87 | 3.65 | 4.00 | 1.80 | 2.07 | 1.67 | 2.12 |
BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.60 | 1.71 | 1.98 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Puebla leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Club Tijuana and Puebla, Puebla leads with 5 wins, while Club Tijuana has secured 2 victories, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches being closely contested; however, Puebla has achieved some significant victories, including a 5-2 win and a 4-3 win. The most recent match ended in a 0-0 draw, highlighting a potential shift towards tighter contests. Club Tijuana's last win against Puebla came in November 2024, suggesting a challenging period for them in this matchup.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 21 | DWDLW |
| 2 |  Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 20 | LDLWW |
| 3 |  Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 20 | WWDWW |
| 4 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 19 | DLDWW |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 18 | DWDWL |
| 6 |  Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 18 | DWDLD |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 15 | DLDLW |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 | DLDLW |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 | LWDLD |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 9 | DLLLD |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 26 | -18 | 4 | DLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonClub Tijuana have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Club Tijuana 2-3 and lost to Club Tijuana 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 12D 10L from the last 32 games (31% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Puebla have won 4 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 13. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Tigres UANL 1-0 and lost to Club America 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 7D 17L from the last 32 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersClub Tijuana
No reported absences
Puebla
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Daniel Quintero Huitron has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Club Tijuana have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; Puebla 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Club Tijuana have generated 1.85 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 31% of them. They put 3.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Club Tijuana player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
