Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL Prediction, Tips & Odds
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL
Match Preview
The model favours Guadalajara Chivas to win this match against Tigres UANL, with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Chivas currently sit in third place in the Liga MX standings, having accumulated 18 points from 10 matches. Their season form has been solid, with five wins, three draws, and only two losses. Notably, they have scored 17 goals while conceding just 10, highlighting their strong goal difference of +7. This indicates a well-rounded team that is both defensively solid and capable of finding the back of the net. On the other hand, Tigres UANL find themselves in a challenging position, sitting 15th in the league with just 10 points from their 10 matches. Their record shows only two wins, alongside four draws and four losses. With a goal tally of 10 scored and 13 conceded, their negative goal difference of -3 reflects a need for improvement in both defense and attack. Their recent form, with only one win in the last five matches, suggests that they are struggling to find consistency. The model indicates a high probability of a Chivas victory, with a projected score of 2-0. However, a caveat is that if Tigres can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Chivas, they may be able to create scoring opportunities. For full transparency, the prediction is based on an in-house model from The Daily Punt Analysis Team that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.9% probability.
Guadalajara Chivas have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Guadalajara Chivas clean sheets, in line with their 42% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Guadalajara Chivas are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.76 | 3.70 | 4.05 | 1.77 | 1.97 | 1.69 | 2.02 | |
| 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.90 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 1.85 | 3.57 | 4.51 | 1.82 | 2.05 | — | — | |
| 1.81 | 3.21 | 3.53 | 1.79 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 1.80 | 3.30 | 3.75 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.05 | |
| 1.85 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.78 | 3.70 | 4.06 | 1.77 | 1.97 | 1.69 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 1.87 | 3.50 | 4.20 | 1.80 | 2.05 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.74 | 1.94 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Tigres UANL leads 5-1)In the last 10 matches between Guadalajara Chivas and Tigres UANL, Tigres UANL has won 5 times, Guadalajara Chivas has won once, and there have been 4 draws. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Tigres UANL to dominate, with several heavy victories, including a 4-1 win and a 3-1 win in their most recent encounters. While there have been narrow draws and a few tightly contested matches, the overall trend favors Tigres UANL, who have not lost to Guadalajara Chivas in their last five meetings, highlighting their recent strength in this rivalry.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 21 | DWDLW |
| 2 |  Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 20 | LDLWW |
| 3 |  Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 20 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 19 | DLDWW |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 18 | DWDWL |
| 6 |  Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 18 | DWDLD |
| 13 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 13 | WWLDD |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 | LWDLD |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 9 | DLLLD |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 26 | -18 | 4 | DLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGuadalajara Chivas have won 10 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 and lost to Guadalajara Chivas 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 11D 8L from the last 38 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Tigres UANL have won 3 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to FC Juarez 2-0 and drew with Santos Laguna 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 12D 12L from the last 39 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersGuadalajara Chivas
No reported absences
Tigres UANL
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Fernando Hernandez Gomez has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Guadalajara Chivas have averaged 7.3 corners per match at home; Tigres UANL 6.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Guadalajara Chivas have generated 1.71 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 6.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Guadalajara Chivas player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
