Croatia vs England Prediction, Tips & Odds
Croatia vs England
Match Preview
The matchup between Croatia and England in the UEFA Nations League knockout stage promises to be a compelling contest, with both teams looking to secure a place in the next round. While bookmakers have not yet priced this fixture, the competitive history and recent form of both sides provide a foundation for analysis. Croatia's recent competitive form shows a mixed bag of results, including a notable victory over Slovenia and a recent loss to England. Their ability to score, as seen in matches against Ghana and Panama, suggests they can be a threat in attack. However, defensively, they have struggled, conceding multiple goals in their last few matches, including a 4-2 loss to England in a previous encounter. This inconsistency could be a concern as they face a high-scoring England side. England's recent results indicate a team capable of both thrilling performances and defensive lapses. Their last encounter with Croatia ended in a 4-2 victory, showcasing their attacking prowess. Still, they have also suffered defeats, including a close match against Argentina. England's ability to score goals has been evident, but they will need to tighten their defense to avoid a repeat of past errors. A key caveat for both teams is the knockout nature of this match, where a single mistake could lead to elimination. Additionally, the neutral venue means neither side will have a home advantage. The Daily Punt Analysis Team views this matchup through an in-house model that considers aggregated bookmaker probabilities and the context of the tournament.
About the Teams
Croatia
Profile data not available yet.
England
Profile data not available yet.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.8% probability.
England have been the stronger side, winning 73% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. England are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Croatia vs England| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.70 | 4.05 | 1.75 | 1.66 | 2.26 | 1.61 | 2.17 | |
| 4.75 | 3.90 | 1.70 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 5.04 | 3.98 | 1.70 | 1.69 | 2.24 | — | — | |
| 4.17 | 3.76 | 1.72 | 1.63 | 2.29 | — | — | |
| 4.40 | 3.60 | 1.67 | — | — | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 4.75 | 3.90 | 1.70 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 4.70 | 4.05 | 1.75 | 1.68 | 2.29 | 1.61 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 4.70 | 3.95 | 1.80 | 1.70 | 2.22 | 1.62 | 2.22 |
BetVictor | 4.60 | 4.00 | 1.67 | 1.62 | 2.12 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (England leads 3-1)In their last five competitive meetings, England has won 3 times, Croatia has won once, and there has been 1 draw. The matches have taken place between 2018 and 2026, with the most recent encounter in June 2026. This sample includes all competitive fixtures, with the most notable being Croatia's victory in the 2018 World Cup semi-final. However, England has had the upper hand in the more recent contests, winning the last three encounters since Croatia's last win. Overall, while Croatia has had success in the past, England currently holds a stronger record in recent competitive meetings.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonCroatia have won 6 of their last 7 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Croatia 2-1 and beat Croatia 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 1D 5L from the last 17 games (65% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
England have won 9 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 0. Their recent away fixtures include beat England 0-2 and beat France 4-6.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 2D 4L from the last 22 games (73% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCroatia4-2-3-1Confirmed
England4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersCroatia
No reported absences
England
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Sven Jablonski has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Croatia have averaged 3.6 corners per match at home; England 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
England have generated 1.72 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 73% of them. They put 6.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. England player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.