Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna Prediction, Tips & Odds
Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna
Match Preview
The model favours Cruz Azul to win against Santos Laguna with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Cruz Azul currently sits in 12th place in the league standings, having accumulated 6 points from 5 matches. Their recent form shows a mixed bag, with two wins and three losses, but they have managed to score 8 goals while conceding 10. The key takeaway is their ability to find the net, which could prove crucial against a struggling Santos Laguna defence. On the other hand, Santos Laguna is languishing in 17th position, having lost all five of their matches this season, resulting in 0 points. They have scored only 4 goals and conceded 11, giving them a goal difference of -7. Their lack of wins and poor goal-scoring record indicates significant challenges ahead, particularly in breaking down opponents like Cruz Azul who have shown some attacking prowess. The model suggests a win probability of 65% for Cruz Azul, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat is that if Santos Laguna can find a way to improve their performance and exploit any defensive lapses from Cruz Azul, they could surprise the home side. The full methodology of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
Cruz Azul have been the stronger side, winning 58% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Cruz Azul win as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Cruz Azul clean sheets, in line with their 24% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Cruz Azul are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.39 | 4.75 | 7.10 | 1.45 | 2.70 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.35 | 5.00 | 7.20 | 1.37 | 2.66 | 1.61 | 2.15 | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 1.40 | 2.88 | — | — | |
| 1.39 | 5.36 | 7.45 | 1.44 | 2.89 | — | — | |
| 1.37 | 4.32 | 5.42 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.35 | 4.60 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.20 | |
| 1.36 | 5.50 | 7.00 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.22 | 1.37 | 2.66 | 1.61 | 2.18 | |
| 1.38 | 4.80 | 6.25 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.56 | 2.18 | |
Betano | 1.42 | 4.85 | 6.80 | 1.47 | 2.80 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
Superbet | 1.41 | 5.15 | 6.20 | 1.44 | 2.82 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.25 | 7.50 | 1.41 | 2.63 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Cruz Azul leads 5-3)In the last ten matches between Cruz Azul and Santos Laguna, Cruz Azul has won 5 times, Santos Laguna has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of close contests and some decisive victories, with Cruz Azul's wins generally being narrow, while Santos Laguna's largest win was a commanding 4-0. The matches have featured a balance of scoring, with several fixtures ending in tight scores, suggesting competitiveness. Santos Laguna's last victory was in February 2022, indicating a recent struggle against Cruz Azul in this fixture.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Toluca | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | WWWLL |
| 5 |  Club Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | WWLDW |
| 6 |  Club Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 13 | LWLWD |
| 16 |  Atletico San Luis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 | LWDLD |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCruz Azul have won 11 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Santos Laguna 1-0 and lost to Atlas 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 11D 5L from the last 38 games (58% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Santos Laguna have won 4 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 13. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Santos Laguna 1-0 and lost to Puebla 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 4D 19L from the last 29 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCruz Azul5-3-2Confirmed
Santos Laguna4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersCruz Azul
No reported absences
Santos Laguna
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Quintero has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Cruz Azul have averaged 5.9 corners per match at home; Santos Laguna 5.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Cruz Azul have generated 1.91 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 58% of them. They put 5.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Cruz Azul player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
