CSKA Sofia vs Derry City Prediction, Tips & Odds
CSKA Sofia vs Derry City
Match Preview
The model favours CSKA Sofia to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. CSKA Sofia has shown a mixed form recently, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency could be a concern, but their overall home advantage in European competitions typically boosts their performance. The model indicates a solid win probability of 71.8%, underscoring their position as the stronger side in this matchup. On the other hand, Derry City has also experienced a similar run of form, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. While they have shown glimpses of potential, their lower win probability of 9.7% reflects the challenges they face when competing away from home against a team with CSKA Sofia's pedigree. The lack of a strong away record in European fixtures could hinder their chances of success. According to the model output, CSKA Sofia has a 71.8% chance of winning, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market insight suggests that there is a 57.0% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match. However, one caveat is that if Derry City can capitalize on set pieces or defensive lapses from CSKA Sofia, they could pose a threat. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
CSKA Sofia have kept a clean sheet in 18% of matches. Derry City average 1.4 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.5% probability.
CSKA Sofia have been the stronger side, winning 55% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 CSKA Sofia win as the most likely scoreline at 17.5% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature CSKA Sofia clean sheets, in line with their 18% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. CSKA Sofia are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
CSKA Sofia vs Derry City| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.19 | 5.50 | 15.00 | 1.55 | 2.35 | 2.15 | 1.57 | |
| 1.17 | 6.70 | 14.50 | 1.50 | 2.29 | 2.22 | 1.57 | |
| 1.17 | 6.50 | 14.00 | 1.45 | 2.55 | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| 1.15 | 7.14 | 15.96 | 1.51 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 1.18 | 5.42 | 9.06 | 1.62 | 2.19 | — | — | |
| 1.18 | 6.00 | 13.00 | — | — | 2.10 | 1.65 | |
| 1.20 | 6.00 | 11.00 | 1.53 | 2.38 | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 1.18 | 6.70 | 14.00 | 1.50 | 2.29 | 2.22 | 1.59 | |
| 1.24 | 5.75 | 11.00 | 1.58 | 2.18 | 2.14 | 1.62 | |
| 1.18 | 6.00 | 13.00 | 1.44 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
Betano | 1.22 | 5.80 | 11.25 | 1.55 | 2.35 | 2.18 | 1.62 |
Superbet | 1.21 | 6.20 | 10.00 | 1.54 | 2.32 | 2.15 | 1.63 |
BetVictor | 1.18 | 6.50 | 15.00 | 1.51 | 2.34 | 2.15 | 1.62 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (CSKA Sofia leads 1-0)CSKA Sofia has won the only recorded match against Derry City, with a score of 3-2. This result indicates a competitive encounter, as the scoreline suggests that both teams were able to find the net multiple times. However, with only one match in the head-to-head record, it is difficult to draw any definitive conclusions about the overall rivalry. Derry City's lack of wins in this fixture highlights their struggle to secure a positive result against CSKA Sofia in this instance.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonCSKA Sofia have won 2 of their last 4 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat CSKA Sofia 3-2 and beat CSKA Sofia 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 2D 3L from the last 11 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Derry City have won 0 of their last 7 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Derry City 1-0 and lost to CSKA Sofia 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 3W 4D 7L from the last 14 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCSKA Sofia4-3-1-2Confirmed
Derry City4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersCSKA Sofia
No reported absences
Derry City
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Vernice has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
CSKA Sofia average 1.4 goals per match at home; Derry City 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
CSKA Sofia have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 55% of their matches and averaging 1.4 goals per game. CSKA Sofia player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
