DC United vs New England Revolution Prediction, Tips & Odds
DC United vs New England Revolution
Match Preview
The model favours New England Revolution to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. New England currently sits in third place in the standings, boasting a solid season record of nine wins, three draws, and five losses. With a goal difference of plus seven, they have demonstrated a stronger defensive and offensive performance compared to their opponents. The Revolution's recent form includes two wins and two draws in their last five matches, indicating a resilient side capable of grinding out results. On the other hand, DC United finds itself in ninth place with a record of five wins, eight draws, and five losses. They have scored 26 goals but conceded 29, resulting in a negative goal difference. However, their recent form shows promise, as they are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording one win and four draws. This trend suggests that DC United is improving, making them a challenging opponent despite their lower league position. The model gives New England a win probability of approximately 55%, while DC United's chances stand at around 25%. A key market statistic to consider is that New England has a 50% chance of winning based on current betting lines. One caveat is that if DC United can maintain their unbeaten streak and capitalize on home advantage, they may pose a significant threat. For a detailed explanation of our predictions, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the methodology of our in-house model, which analyzes expected goals and actual results, is outlined.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.7% probability.
New England Revolution have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. New England Revolution are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
DC United vs New England Revolution| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.56 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.54 | 3.45 | 2.57 | 1.70 | 2.11 | 1.55 | 2.26 | |
| 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.63 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 2.63 | 3.60 | 2.66 | 1.74 | 2.19 | — | — | |
| 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.60 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.65 | 1.75 | 2.04 | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.50 | 1.67 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 2.60 | 3.45 | 2.65 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
Superbet | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.65 | 1.73 | 2.12 | 1.58 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.55 | 1.66 | 2.05 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (New England Revolution leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between DC United and New England Revolution, New England has won 6 times, DC United has won 3 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, though New England has had the upper hand, with several narrow wins, including three by just a single goal. DC United’s victories were also close, with two matches decided by a one-goal margin. Notably, New England's recent form includes a significant 4-0 win, highlighting their ability to dominate at times. The last time DC United won was in October 2024, suggesting a growing challenge in this matchup.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 18 | 27 | 40 | WLWDD |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 17 | 26 | 49 | WWWDL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 40 | 9 | 39 | LDLDW |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 21 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 38 | LWWWW |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 22 | 14 | 35 | DLLDW |
| 3 |  Chicago Fire | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 26 | 11 | 36 | DWWWL |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 26 | 7 | 34 | DWLLD |
| 11 | DC United | 21 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 24 | LLDDW |
| 14 |  Austin | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 21 | DWLLL |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 18 | WWLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 49 | -30 | 15 | DLLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonDC United have won 2 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to New England Revolution 0-3 and drew with Nashville SC 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 13D 9L from the last 26 games (15% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
New England Revolution have won 2 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat DC United 0-3 and lost to Toronto FC 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 11L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedDC United4-4-2Confirmed
New England Revolution4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersDC United3
New England Revolution5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Fierro has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
DC United have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; New England Revolution 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
New England Revolution have generated 1.18 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 3.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. New England Revolution player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
