Denmark vs Wales Prediction, Tips & Odds
Denmark vs Wales
Match Preview
Denmark enters this knockout match against Wales with a competitive edge, having shown a stronger recent form in their last eight competitive matches. They have secured four wins, including a notable 4-0 victory over FYR Macedonia and a 6-0 demolition of Belarus, indicating a potent attack. In contrast, Wales has struggled, achieving only two wins in their last eight competitive outings, with a recent loss to Romania and a series of draws, which could affect their confidence heading into this crucial fixture. Both teams are set to compete in the UEFA Nations League, with the group stage yet to begin, meaning every match is critical for qualification. A win is essential for either side to establish a strong footing early in the tournament. Denmark's recent performances suggest they are in a better rhythm, while Wales will need to find a way to convert their draws into wins to stay competitive. An important caveat is the neutral venue, which could level the playing field, as neither team has the advantage of home support. Additionally, both squads are reported to have no significant absentees, allowing them to field their strongest lineups. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has assessed this matchup using an in-house model that analyzes aggregated bookmaker probabilities and the tournament context to offer insights into potential outcomes.
About the Teams
Denmark
Profile data not available yet.
Wales
Profile data not available yet.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.2% probability.
Denmark have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Denmark win as the most likely scoreline at 14.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Denmark clean sheets, in line with their 50% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Denmark are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Denmark vs Wales| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.40 | 5.20 | 8.00 | 1.61 | 2.35 | 1.81 | 1.89 | |
| 1.36 | 4.75 | 8.00 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.75 | 2.05 | |
| 1.40 | 5.19 | 7.69 | 1.61 | 2.40 | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 4.73 | 7.34 | 1.60 | 2.35 | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 4.60 | 7.00 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| 1.40 | 5.20 | 8.00 | 1.63 | 2.39 | 1.81 | 1.91 | |
Betano | 1.44 | 5.00 | 7.70 | 1.65 | 2.30 | 1.85 | 1.90 |
BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.80 | 8.00 | 1.56 | 2.23 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (Denmark leads 3-0)Denmark and Wales have faced each other three times in competitive matches, with Denmark winning all three encounters and Wales failing to secure a victory. The most recent match occurred in June 2021, when Denmark defeated Wales 4-0 in the Euro Championship. Prior to that, Denmark won 2-1 in November 2018 and 2-0 in September 2018, both in the UEFA Nations League. Given the sample size of three competitive matches, it indicates a clear advantage for Denmark, but the data is limited to a short timeframe and does not necessarily predict future outcomes.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonDenmark have won 4 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include beat Wales 2-0 and beat Ukraine 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 4D 2L from the last 12 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Wales have won 2 of their last 6 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Wales 2-0 and lost to Portugal 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 3W 3D 6L from the last 12 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedDenmark4-2-3-1Confirmed
Wales4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersDenmark
No reported absences
Wales
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Willy Delajod has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Denmark have averaged 6.4 corners per match at home; Wales 6.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Denmark have generated 2.73 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 7.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Denmark player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.