Derry City vs HNK Rijeka Prediction, Tips & Odds
Derry City vs HNK Rijeka
Match Preview
The model favours HNK Rijeka to win the match against Derry City, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Rijeka comes into this fixture with strong momentum, having secured four wins and one draw in their last five matches. This solid form indicates a well-functioning team that is likely to capitalize on scoring opportunities. On the other hand, Derry City has struggled recently, managing only one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency could hinder their performance against a confident Rijeka side. Derry will need to find a way to regain form if they hope to compete effectively in this encounter. The model indicates a win probability of around 65% for HNK Rijeka, suggesting they are the clear favourites. A key market percentage to note is that Rijeka is likely to score at least two goals. However, if Derry can leverage their home advantage and improve their defensive stability, they may pose a challenge. For a complete understanding of how these predictions were derived, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 31% of matches. HNK Rijeka average 1.4 goals per game.
Derry City manage games at home, conceding just 1.23 goals per match. HNK Rijeka score 1.44 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.2% probability.
HNK Rijeka have been the stronger side, winning 64% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-1 HNK Rijeka win as the most likely scoreline at 17.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. HNK Rijeka are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Derry City vs HNK Rijeka| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.85 | 3.65 | 1.65 | 1.95 | 1.80 | 1.85 | 1.80 | |
| 5.10 | 3.65 | 1.64 | 1.96 | 1.80 | 1.89 | 1.79 | |
| 4.75 | 3.60 | 1.62 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 4.81 | 3.58 | 1.69 | 2.00 | 1.83 | — | — | |
| 4.22 | 3.25 | 1.66 | 2.05 | 1.73 | — | — | |
| 4.80 | 3.50 | 1.67 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 4.50 | 3.60 | 1.62 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| 5.28 | 3.78 | 1.70 | 2.00 | 1.84 | 1.89 | 1.81 | |
| 5.50 | 3.70 | 1.58 | 1.91 | 1.76 | 1.93 | 1.74 | |
Betano | 4.60 | 3.80 | 1.67 | 1.91 | 1.83 | 1.90 | 1.80 |
Superbet | 4.70 | 3.70 | 1.69 | 1.95 | 1.76 | 1.95 | 1.77 |
BetVictor | 5.00 | 3.60 | 1.67 | 1.93 | 1.75 | 1.90 | 1.80 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Derry City and HNK Rijeka stands at 0 wins for Derry City, 1 draw, and 0 wins for HNK Rijeka. Their only encounter ended in a 0-0 draw, indicating a tightly contested match with neither side able to secure a victory. This result shows a lack of scoring from both teams, suggesting a defensive battle rather than an offensive showcase. With no wins recorded for either club in their sole meeting, it reflects an evenly matched dynamic.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonDerry City have won 3 of their last 7 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Derry City 3-0 and lost to Derry City 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 3W 4D 6L from the last 13 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
HNK Rijeka have won 7 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Derry City 0-1 and beat Radomlje 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 4D 5L from the last 25 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedDerry City4-2-3-1Confirmed
HNK Rijeka4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersDerry City
No reported absences
HNK Rijeka
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Goncalves has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Goncalves to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Derry City have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; HNK Rijeka 9.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 8.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
HNK Rijeka have generated 1.83 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 64% of them. They put 6.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. HNK Rijeka player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
