Estoril vs Arouca Prediction, Tips & Odds
Estoril vs Arouca
Match Preview
The model favours Arouca to win against Estoril, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Arouca currently sits in a strong fifth position in the Primeira Liga standings, having secured two wins and one loss from their first three matches. They have scored five goals while conceding only two, showcasing a positive goal difference of three. Their recent form, with three wins in their last five matches, indicates a team that is finding its rhythm. In contrast, Estoril is struggling at the bottom end of the table, positioned 15th with one point from three matches. They have yet to register a win, with a record of two losses and one draw. Their attack has been particularly ineffective, managing just one goal while allowing five, resulting in a goal difference of minus four. The team’s inability to convert chances into goals is a significant concern. The model suggests Arouca has a high probability of winning this match, with a projected score of 2-0. However, a potential pitfall for Arouca could be complacency, as they face a team that, despite its struggles, could capitalize on any defensive lapses. The analysis is based on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season, providing a comprehensive view of both teams' performances.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.6% probability.
Arouca have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Arouca are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Estoril vs Arouca| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.48 | 3.45 | 2.65 | 1.83 | 1.95 | 1.65 | 2.10 | |
| 2.60 | 3.28 | 2.61 | 1.82 | 1.95 | 1.62 | 2.14 | |
| 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.75 | 1.87 | 1.91 | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 2.63 | 3.42 | 2.78 | 1.87 | 2.02 | — | — | |
| 2.45 | 3.19 | 2.57 | 1.86 | 1.98 | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.62 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.70 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.66 | 3.47 | 2.72 | 1.88 | 2.01 | 1.62 | 2.17 | |
| 2.33 | 3.40 | 2.95 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.68 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.75 | 1.83 | 2.02 | 1.62 | 2.22 |
Superbet | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.75 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.66 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.60 | 1.78 | 1.89 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Arouca leads 5-4)In the last 10 matches between Estoril and Arouca, Arouca leads with 5 wins, while Estoril has 4 victories and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches being closely contested; five of the encounters ended with a margin of just one goal. Notably, Estoril's victories include a significant 4-1 win, but Arouca also has a strong showing with a 4-3 win. The last time Estoril triumphed over Arouca was in May 2023, suggesting a balance where both teams have had their moments of success.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Santa Clara | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 4 |  Benfica | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 10 | WWWD |
| 5 | Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 9 | WLWW |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | LDWW |
| 16 |  Alverca | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 | LDLDL |
| 17 | Estoril | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonEstoril have won 4 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Estoril 0-2 and drew with Estoril 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 7D 12L from the last 26 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Arouca have won 5 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to FC Porto 2-0 and beat Lusitânia Lourosa 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 4D 11L from the last 26 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersEstoril
No reported absences
Arouca
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
F. Verissimo has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by F. Verissimo to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Estoril have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Arouca 3.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Arouca have generated 1.08 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Arouca player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
