Estudiantes L.P. vs Newells Old Boys Prediction, Tips & Odds
Estudiantes L.P. vs Newells Old Boys
Match Preview
The model favours Estudiantes L.P. to win against Newells Old Boys, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Currently sitting at the top of the league, Estudiantes has performed consistently throughout the season with a record of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses. They boast a solid goal difference of +12, having scored 19 goals while conceding just 7. This defensive strength is crucial as they look to maintain their position in the standings. In contrast, Newells Old Boys find themselves in 14th place, struggling with a record of only 3 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses. With a goal difference of -12, they have conceded 27 goals while managing to score just 15. Their inability to convert draws into wins has hampered their ability to climb the table, and they will need to improve significantly to pose a threat in this match. The model indicates a strong win probability for Estudiantes, reflecting their current form and league position. However, a potential caveat is that if Newells can exploit any lapses in Estudiantes' defence, they could make the match competitive. For a detailed understanding of the prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Estudiantes L.P. have kept a clean sheet in 38% of matches. Newells Old Boys average 0.9 goals per game.
Estudiantes L.P. manage games at home, conceding just 0.93 goals per match. Newells Old Boys score 0.88 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 20.3% probability.
Estudiantes L.P. have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Estudiantes L.P. win as the most likely scoreline at 20.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Estudiantes L.P. clean sheets, in line with their 38% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Estudiantes L.P. are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Estudiantes L.P. vs Newells Old Boys| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.68 | 3.40 | 5.60 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 2.10 | 1.65 | |
| 1.64 | 3.44 | 5.80 | 2.31 | 1.59 | 2.18 | 1.59 | |
| 1.62 | 3.50 | 5.50 | 2.38 | 1.57 | 2.20 | 1.65 | |
| 1.69 | 3.55 | 6.13 | 2.38 | 1.63 | — | — | |
| 1.68 | 3.28 | 4.84 | 2.36 | 1.57 | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.25 | 5.50 | — | — | 2.15 | 1.62 | |
| 1.67 | 3.50 | 6.00 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 1.67 | 3.50 | 5.91 | 2.33 | 1.60 | 2.18 | 1.61 | |
| 1.67 | 3.50 | 5.60 | 2.33 | 1.57 | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
Betano | 1.72 | 3.55 | 6.20 | 2.35 | 1.62 | 2.15 | 1.65 |
Superbet | 1.70 | 3.50 | 5.55 | 2.37 | 1.60 | 2.22 | 1.61 |
BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.60 | 5.75 | 2.21 | 1.57 | 2.15 | 1.60 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Estudiantes L.P. leads 5-3)In the last ten matches between Estudiantes L.P. and Newells Old Boys, Estudiantes L.P. has won 5 times, Newells Old Boys has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines suggest a mixture of outcomes; Estudiantes has secured several convincing victories, including a 4-1 win and a 3-0 win, indicating their ability to dominate in certain matches. However, Newells Old Boys also achieved notable wins, such as a 2-0 victory. The draw frequency indicates competitive fixtures, with tight matches, but Estudiantes has been more successful recently, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | LWDLW |
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | LDLWL |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | WWDWL |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | DWDDD |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | WDDDD |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | DWDLW |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | DDWWL |
| 14 |  Aldosivi | 16 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 8 | WLLDL |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | LDDLL |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | DDDLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonEstudiantes L.P. have won 12 of their last 23 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Estudiantes L.P. 0-0 and beat Estudiantes L.P. 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 10D 14L from the last 42 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Newells Old Boys have won 2 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Newells Old Boys 1-1 and drew with Estudiantes L.P. 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 9D 10L from the last 24 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersEstudiantes L.P.
No reported absences
Newells Old Boys
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Pafundi has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Estudiantes L.P. have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Newells Old Boys 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Estudiantes L.P. have generated 1.39 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Estudiantes L.P. player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
