Everton vs Crystal Palace Prediction, Tips & Odds
Everton vs Crystal Palace
Match Preview
The model favours a draw between Everton and Crystal Palace, projecting a scoreline of 1-1. Both teams enter this match with no points on the board, having not yet played in the new season. Everton finished last season in 9th place, showcasing a mixed bag of form with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Their previous season's performance will be vital as they look to build momentum early on. Crystal Palace, sitting just above Everton in 8th place, also carries the weight of last season's form into this match. Their recent performances show two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, indicating a somewhat inconsistent run. As they seek to establish themselves early in this campaign, they will be looking to leverage their recent victories to gain an advantage. The model suggests a win probability of 35% for each team, with a key market percentage indicating a strong likelihood of a draw. A potential caveat for Everton could be their struggle to convert chances into goals, which could hinder their performance. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, crafted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Everton manage games at home, conceding just 1.26 goals per match. Crystal Palace score 1.29 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.5% probability.
Everton have been the stronger side, winning 33% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Everton clean sheets, in line with their 22% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Everton are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Everton vs Crystal Palace| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.14 | 3.35 | 3.30 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| 2.26 | 3.44 | 3.35 | 1.95 | 1.87 | 1.72 | 2.00 | |
| 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 1.91 | 1.83 | 1.75 | 2.10 | |
| 2.27 | 3.45 | 3.36 | 2.00 | 1.90 | — | — | |
| 2.21 | 3.19 | 3.00 | 2.01 | 1.87 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.20 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.05 | |
| 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.25 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.30 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.01 | 1.93 | 1.72 | 2.02 | |
| 2.23 | 3.35 | 3.30 | 1.90 | 1.88 | 1.68 | 2.10 | |
| 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.20 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 1.75 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 2.22 | 3.45 | 3.25 | 1.95 | 1.90 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
Superbet | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 1.97 | 1.85 | 1.74 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 1.88 | 1.79 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Everton leads 7-0)In the last 10 matches between Everton and Crystal Palace, Everton has won 7 times, with 3 draws and no victories for Crystal Palace. The scorelines suggest a generally competitive nature, but with Everton often edging the contests; five of their wins were by a single goal margin, indicating tight matches. Crystal Palace has struggled to find the net against Everton, with no wins in this sample and only one match ending in a draw that featured a score of 1-1. The lack of victories for Crystal Palace highlights their difficulties in overcoming Everton historically.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brighton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 19 |  Coventry | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 20 |  Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonEverton have won 3 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Crystal Palace 2-0 and drew with Lille 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 9D 9L from the last 27 games (33% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Crystal Palace have won 5 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Crystal Palace 2-0 and lost to SC Freiburg 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 8D 13L from the last 34 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedEverton4-2-3-1Confirmed
Crystal Palace3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
4 playersEverton3
Crystal Palace1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
P. Tierney has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by P. Tierney to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Everton average 1.4 goals per match at home; Crystal Palace 1.3 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Everton have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 33% of their matches and averaging 1.4 goals per game. Everton player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
