Everton vs Manchester United Prediction, Tips & Odds
Everton vs Manchester United
Match Preview
The model favours Everton to win against Manchester United, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Everton currently sits in fourth place in the Premier League standings after a solid start to the season, having won their opening match without conceding a goal. With a goal difference of +2, they have demonstrated both defensive solidity and attacking effectiveness, which could be crucial as they aim to maintain their strong form. In contrast, Manchester United finds themselves in a challenging position, sitting in 16th place after suffering a loss in their first match of the season. They have yet to score and have conceded two goals, indicating struggles in both attack and defence. Their recent form has been concerning, with just one win in their last five matches, underscoring ongoing issues that need addressing if they hope to turn their season around. The model indicates a strong win probability for Everton, reflecting their current form and league position. However, one caveat is that early-season matches can be unpredictable, and if Manchester United finds a way to improve their performance, they could pose a threat. For a detailed explanation of our methodology, which relies on expected goals and actual results through the season, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team is committed to providing data-driven insights to inform your betting decisions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.9% probability.
Manchester United have been the stronger side, winning 54% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Manchester United are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Everton vs Manchester United| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 3.72 | 3.72 | 2.03 | 1.63 | 2.31 | 1.52 | 2.36 | |
| 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 3.60 | 3.68 | 2.09 | 1.65 | 2.35 | — | — | |
| 2.84 | 3.16 | 2.16 | 1.70 | 2.19 | — | — | |
| 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.00 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 3.80 | 3.70 | 1.95 | 1.62 | 2.30 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 3.78 | 3.78 | 2.06 | 1.68 | 2.38 | 1.52 | 2.40 | |
| 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.12 | 1.68 | 2.16 | 1.54 | 2.35 | |
Betano | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.15 | 1.72 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.32 |
Superbet | 3.30 | 3.55 | 2.20 | 1.68 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.35 |
BetVictor | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.95 | 1.58 | 2.19 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Manchester United leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Everton and Manchester United, Manchester United has won 7 times, Everton has won once, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a significant advantage for Manchester United, with several heavy wins, including a 4-0 victory and a 3-0 win. Everton's lone victory came in a match in November 2025, suggesting a long gap since their last successful result against this opponent. The matches have featured a mix of narrow and more decisive outcomes, reflecting Manchester United's dominance in this fixture.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Hull City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 5 |  Brentford | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | DDW |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | WDD |
| 8 | Everton | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | DDW |
| 11 | Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 4 | DWL |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 19 |  Fulham | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Coventry | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonEverton have won 3 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Everton 2-0 and drew with Everton 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 10D 9L from the last 29 games (34% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Manchester United have won 5 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Manchester United 2-2 and lost to Hull City 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 6L from the last 28 games (54% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedEverton4-2-3-1Confirmed
Manchester United4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
7 playersEverton1
Manchester United6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Brooks has averaged 6.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Everton have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Manchester United 5.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Manchester United have generated 2.36 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 54% of them. They put 6.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Manchester United player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
