FC Rostov vs Fakel Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Rostov vs Fakel
Match Preview
The model favours FC Rostov to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Rostov currently sits in 10th place in the league, having secured 5 points from their first five matches with a record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Their goal-scoring has been relatively balanced, with 7 goals scored and 9 conceded, indicating a need for improvement in both attack and defence. However, their recent form shows they have managed to pick up points, earning 2 wins and 2 draws in their last five matches. In contrast, Fakel finds themselves lower in the standings at 14th place, with just 2 points from their opening five games, failing to register a win. Their record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, along with only 3 goals scored against 6 conceded, highlights significant challenges in both creating chances and defending effectively. Their recent form has been particularly concerning, as they have not managed to secure a win and have struggled to find the net. Given these factors, the model indicates a win probability of 65% for FC Rostov, while Fakel's chances sit at around 20%. One key market to watch is Rostov winning by a single goal margin, which is a common outcome in tightly contested matches. However, if Rostov's defence falters, they could be vulnerable to an upset. For a detailed explanation of the prediction method, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
FC Rostov have kept a clean sheet in 25% of matches. Fakel average 1.1 goals per game.
FC Rostov manage games at home, conceding just 1.28 goals per match. Fakel score 1.06 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.2% probability.
FC Rostov have been the stronger side, winning 31% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 FC Rostov win as the most likely scoreline at 18.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature FC Rostov clean sheets, in line with their 25% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. FC Rostov are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Rostov vs Fakel| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.98 | 3.36 | 4.20 | 2.35 | 1.60 | 2.03 | 1.70 | |
| 1.93 | 3.34 | 4.23 | 2.30 | 1.62 | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 2.93 | 3.52 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.03 | 3.44 | 4.30 | 2.43 | 1.66 | 2.03 | 1.72 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC Rostov leads 7-3)In the last 10 matches between FC Rostov and Fakel, FC Rostov has won 7 times, while Fakel has secured 3 victories with no draws. The scorelines indicate a somewhat one-sided rivalry, highlighted by Rostov's ability to achieve several convincing wins, including a 4-1 and a 3-0 result. However, Fakel has also managed to win by a 3-1 margin in one instance, suggesting they can compete at times. The absence of draws further emphasizes a clear outcome in these encounters, with Fakel's last win occurring in May 2023.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Krasnodar | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Spartak Moscow | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 13 | DWWLW |
| 3 |  Zenit | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 4 |  CSKA Moscow | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 12 | DWWDD |
| 5 |  Baltika | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 | WDLWW |
| 6 |  Dynamo | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 10 | WWLWL |
| 12 | FC Rostov | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 | LLDDW |
| 14 |  Lokomotiv | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 | LLDDL |
| 15 |  Akron | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 3 | DLDDL |
| 16 | Fakel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 | LDLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Rostov have won 5 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat FC Rostov 1-0 and drew with FC Rostov 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 8D 14L from the last 32 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Fakel have won 2 of their last 8 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Akhmat 2-1 and lost to CSKA Moscow 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 6D 8L from the last 18 games (22% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Rostov
No reported absences
Fakel
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
FC Rostov have averaged 5.2 corners per match at home; Fakel 6.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
FC Rostov have generated 0.91 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 31% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. FC Rostov player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
