Zenit vs CSKA Moscow Prediction, Tips & Odds
Zenit vs CSKA Moscow
Match Preview
The model favours Zenit to win against CSKA Moscow, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Zenit currently sits in third place in the league after four matches, having secured three wins and one loss. They have scored a notable 12 goals while conceding only two, resulting in a strong goal difference of 10. Their attacking prowess and defensive solidity make them a formidable opponent, particularly at home. CSKA Moscow, in second place, has played one additional match and remains unbeaten with three wins and two draws. They have scored seven goals and conceded four, which gives them a goal difference of three. While they have shown resilience, their recent form includes two draws in the last five matches, indicating potential vulnerabilities that Zenit may exploit. The model predicts a win probability of around 60% for Zenit, making them the clear favourites for this encounter. One key market to watch is Zenit’s odds to win by a single goal. However, a caveat is that if CSKA Moscow can tighten their defence and convert their chances more effectively, they could challenge Zenit’s strong home record. For a detailed understanding of the prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis comes from an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.0% probability.
Zenit have been the stronger side, winning 71% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Zenit win as the most likely scoreline at 15.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Zenit clean sheets, in line with their 58% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Zenit are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Zenit vs CSKA Moscow| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.61 | 4.15 | 5.60 | 1.78 | 2.05 | 1.78 | 1.93 | |
| 1.60 | 4.14 | 5.82 | 1.79 | 2.09 | — | — | |
| 1.52 | 3.59 | 4.73 | 1.79 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 1.65 | 4.25 | 5.74 | 1.83 | 2.13 | 1.78 | 1.95 | |
Superbet | 1.58 | 4.00 | 5.25 | 1.78 | 1.97 | 1.83 | 1.88 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Zenit leads 3-2)The head-to-head record between Zenit and CSKA Moscow shows Zenit winning 3 matches, CSKA Moscow winning 2, and 5 matches ending in draws over their last 10 encounters. This indicates a fairly balanced rivalry, with a notable number of draws suggesting closely contested matches. The scorelines reveal a mix of tight contests, with several matches ending in draws or narrow margins, such as the 1-0 and 2-1 results. CSKA Moscow's last victory against Zenit came in May 2024, indicating that Zenit has had the upper hand in recent fixtures.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Krasnodar | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Spartak Moscow | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 13 | DWWLW |
| 3 | Zenit | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 4 | CSKA Moscow | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 12 | DWWDD |
| 5 |  Baltika | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 | WDLWW |
| 6 |  Dynamo | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 10 | WWLWL |
| 14 |  Lokomotiv | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 | LLDDL |
| 15 |  Akron | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 3 | DLDDL |
| 16 |  Fakel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 | LDLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonZenit have won 18 of their last 24 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include beat Dinamo Makhachkala 3-0 and beat Dynamo 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 27W 8D 3L from the last 38 games (71% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
CSKA Moscow have won 4 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to CSKA Moscow 2-0 and drew with Akron 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 11D 13L from the last 36 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedZenit4-2-3-1Confirmed
CSKA Moscow4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
5 playersZenit2
CSKA Moscow3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Zenit have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; CSKA Moscow 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Zenit have generated 1.40 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 71% of them. They put 5.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Zenit player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
