FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05
Match Preview
The model favours FSV Mainz 05 to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 6th place, Mainz has made a strong start to the season with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from their first four matches. Their attack has been particularly effective, scoring 10 goals, which highlights their offensive capabilities. Despite a recent loss, their overall form indicates they are a competitive side. On the other hand, FC Schalke 04 finds themselves in 11th position with 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Their defensive record shows they have conceded 4 goals while netting only 3, resulting in a negative goal difference. Although Schalke is unbeaten in their last five matches, their poor scoring output could hinder their chances against a more potent Mainz side. The model gives FSV Mainz a 37.7% probability of winning, with a 35.5% chance for Schalke and a 26.8% chance for a draw. With over 2.5 goals being likely at 56.8%, it suggests an entertaining encounter. However, Schalke's recent unbeaten run could pose a challenge to Mainz's aspirations. For a complete understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.0% probability.
FC Schalke 04 have been the stronger side, winning 62% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. FC Schalke 04 are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.45 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.45 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.77 | 3.68 | 2.61 | 1.74 | 2.28 | 1.55 | 2.33 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC Schalke 04 leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05, FC Schalke 04 has won 6 times, with 3 draws and 1 victory for FSV Mainz 05. This record indicates a strong advantage for Schalke, particularly highlighted by their 3-0 win in February 2019 and 2-0 win in October 2017, suggesting they have achieved some heavy victories. The matches have included several low-scoring encounters, with 4 games ending in draws or 0-0 results. Mainz's last win against Schalke came back in February 2019, emphasizing Schalke's dominance in this fixture.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 10 | WWDW |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 |  FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | LDWW |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 | WDWL |
| 6 | FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | WLWD |
| 11 | FC Schalke 04 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 | DWDL |
| 16 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | WLLL |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Schalke 04 have won 3 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with FC Schalke 04 0-0 and lost to FC Schalke 04 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 1D 5L from the last 16 games (63% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
FSV Mainz 05 have won 9 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat FSV Mainz 05 0-3 and beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 8D 6L from the last 34 games (59% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Schalke 04
No reported absences
FSV Mainz 05
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
FC Schalke 04 average 1.9 goals per match at home; FSV Mainz 05 2.5 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
FC Schalke 04 have generated 2.10 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 62% of them. They put 8.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. FC Schalke 04 player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
