Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş
Match Preview
The model favours Fenerbahçe to win against Beşiktaş, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Fenerbahçe currently sits in 9th place in the Süper Lig, having played two matches this season. Their form has been solid, with three wins in their last five matches, highlighting a strong attacking presence with five goals scored so far. Their goal difference of +1 suggests they have been effective in both scoring and defending, which will be crucial in this matchup. On the other hand, Beşiktaş is positioned 11th, also with one win from two matches. Their form has been slightly better recently, with four wins in their last five matches. However, they have only managed to score one goal this season while conceding one, indicating a lack of offensive output. This could be a significant challenge as they face a more potent Fenerbahçe side that has shown greater scoring ability. The model indicates that Fenerbahçe has a strong chance of winning this match, with a win probability favouring them significantly. While the predicted score is 2-1, one caveat is that if Beşiktaş can find their scoring touch and exploit any defensive lapses from Fenerbahçe, they could turn the game in their favour. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.7% probability.
Fenerbahçe have been the stronger side, winning 64% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Fenerbahçe clean sheets, in line with their 33% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Fenerbahçe are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.81 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 2.10 | |
| 2.12 | 3.32 | 3.34 | 1.89 | 1.89 | 1.69 | 2.02 | |
| 1.75 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 2.21 | 3.41 | 3.48 | 1.96 | 1.93 | — | — | |
| 1.82 | 3.36 | 3.58 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.20 | 3.45 | 3.47 | 1.94 | 1.94 | 1.69 | 2.05 | |
| 1.70 | 3.75 | 4.30 | 1.68 | 2.10 | 1.66 | 2.06 | |
Betano | 1.82 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 1.72 | 2.18 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
Superbet | 1.85 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 1.70 | 2.17 | 1.63 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.25 | 1.84 | 1.83 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş stands at 4 wins for each team, along with 2 draws in their last 10 encounters. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with no team having a clear upper hand. The matches have produced a mix of tight contests and a few higher-scoring games, such as the 2-4 result in favor of Beşiktaş. Notably, the draw frequency suggests competitive parity, while both sides have also experienced narrow victories. The last win for Beşiktaş was in early May 2024, indicating that both teams have enjoyed success against each other recently.
Süper Lig Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 10 | WWWD |
| 2 | Beşiktaş | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 | WWLW |
| 3 |  Kocaelispor | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | WWWL |
| 4 |  Trabzonspor | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 7 | WLWD |
| 5 |  Amed | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | DWLW |
| 6 |  Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 7 | LDWW |
| 7 | Fenerbahçe | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 6 | LWWL |
| 16 |  Eyüpspor | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 | LWLL |
| 17 |  Göztepe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 1 | LLD |
| 18 |  Konyaspor | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFenerbahçe have won 10 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Beşiktaş 1-2 and beat Konyaspor 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 6D 6L from the last 33 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Beşiktaş have won 7 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Beşiktaş 1-2 and lost to Kauno Žalgiris 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 7D 9L from the last 36 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFenerbahçe4-2-3-1Confirmed
Beşiktaş4-1-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
5 playersFenerbahçe5
Beşiktaş
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
H. U. Meler has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Fenerbahçe have averaged 7.0 corners per match at home; Beşiktaş 6.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Fenerbahçe have generated 2.14 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 64% of them. They put 6.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Fenerbahçe player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
