Kasımpaşa vs Amed Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kasımpaşa vs Amed
Match Preview
The model favours Kasımpaşa to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 7th place in the Süper Lig, Kasımpaşa has started the season strong with one win and one draw from their first two matches. They have scored 2 goals while conceding only 1, demonstrating a solid defensive performance. Their recent form shows they are unbeaten in their last five matches, with three wins and two draws, indicating a consistent level of play. Amed, positioned just behind in 8th place, has played one match this season, securing a win with a remarkable 3-0 scoreline. However, their limited sample size makes it difficult to fully assess their season potential. Their recent form includes two wins, two draws, and one loss in the last five matches, suggesting some inconsistency that could be a concern moving forward. The model gives Kasımpaşa a strong win probability, projecting them to secure three points in this fixture. While the data leans heavily in favour of Kasımpaşa, one potential pitfall could be complacency, especially against a team that has shown attacking prowess in their only match. The full method used to reach this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season to inform its predictions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Kasımpaşa manage games at home, conceding just 1.07 goals per match. Amed score 2.25 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.8% probability.
Kasımpaşa have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Kasımpaşa clean sheets, in line with their 41% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Kasımpaşa are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kasımpaşa vs Amed| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.22 | 3.30 | 3.15 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
| 2.17 | 3.34 | 3.20 | 2.08 | 1.72 | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
| 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.30 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
| 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| 2.26 | 3.48 | 3.33 | 2.14 | 1.77 | 1.83 | 1.87 | |
| 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 1.97 | 1.71 | 1.76 | 1.91 | |
Betano | 2.22 | 3.35 | 3.30 | 2.18 | 1.72 | 1.87 | 1.87 |
BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.13 | 2.02 | 1.68 | 1.83 | 1.87 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Süper Lig Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 7 | WWD |
| 2 |  Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | DWW |
| 3 |  Fenerbahçe | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 6 | WWL |
| 4 |  Kocaelispor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | WWL |
| 5 |  Rizespor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | WLW |
| 6 | Kasımpaşa | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | DWD |
| 12 | Amed | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | LW |
| 16 |  Göztepe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 1 | LLD |
| 17 |  Erzurumspor FK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 | DLL |
| 18 |  Konyaspor | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKasımpaşa have won 10 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Kasımpaşa 1-1 and beat Kasımpaşa 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 9D 7L from the last 27 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Amed have won 2 of their last 6 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Amed 2-0 and drew with Iğdır FK 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 4D 2L from the last 12 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersKasımpaşa
No reported absences
Amed
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Kasımpaşa have averaged 3.1 corners per match at home; Amed 8.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Kasımpaşa have generated 0.99 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 2.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Kasımpaşa player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
