Fiorentina vs Como Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fiorentina vs Como
Match Preview
The model favours Como to win against Fiorentina, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Como currently sits in 8th place in the Serie A standings, showcasing a strong start to the season with three wins, one draw, and only one loss from five matches. Their goal-scoring ability is evident, having netted nine goals while conceding only six, resulting in a positive goal difference of three. Como's recent form, with four wins in their last five matches, further highlights their competitive edge. On the other hand, Fiorentina finds themselves struggling in 17th place, having managed just one win, one draw, and three losses in their opening five games. They have scored six goals but have conceded twelve, leaving them with a negative goal difference of six. This poor start raises concerns about their defensive stability and overall form, as they have secured only four points thus far. The model gives Como a win probability of 45.9% compared to Fiorentina's 27.7%, indicating a clear advantage for the visitors. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 57.2%, with both teams scoring also being a strong possibility at 59.9%. However, Fiorentina's home advantage could provide an unexpected boost, making them a potential wildcard in this matchup. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the full methodology of The Daily Punt Analysis Team is explained.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.2% probability.
Como have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Como are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fiorentina vs Como| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.42 | 3.70 | 2.07 | 1.67 | 2.22 | 1.55 | 2.29 | |
| 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 3.36 | 3.70 | 2.07 | 1.67 | 2.23 | — | — | |
| 2.96 | 3.26 | 2.06 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.05 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.05 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 3.52 | 3.81 | 2.13 | 1.73 | 2.29 | 1.55 | 2.32 | |
Betano | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.12 | 1.67 | 2.25 | 1.55 | 2.37 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Como leads 3-2)In the last five matches between Fiorentina and Como, Como has won three times while Fiorentina has secured two victories, resulting in no draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with Como achieving narrow wins of 2-1 and 1-0 in three of their victories, while Fiorentina's wins have been by similar margins. Notably, Como's recent success suggests they have had the upper hand, winning three of the last four encounters. Fiorentina's last win against Como was in November 2024, highlighting a shift in momentum towards Como in recent matchups.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 8 | Como | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 10 | LWWWD |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 | DWLLL |
| 18 |  Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFiorentina have won 8 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Napoli 1-1 and beat Pisa 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 10D 10L from the last 36 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Como have won 9 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Como 2-0 and beat Genoa 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 11D 5L from the last 33 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFiorentina
No reported absences
Como
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Fiorentina have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Como 7.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Como have generated 2.01 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 52% of them. They put 6.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Como player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
