Fiorentina vs Napoli Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fiorentina vs Napoli
Match Preview
The model favours Napoli to win against Fiorentina, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Napoli currently sits in 13th place in Serie A, having secured one win out of their first three matches. They have scored five goals while conceding five, indicating a balanced offensive and defensive performance, although they will look to improve their overall consistency. In contrast, Fiorentina finds itself at the bottom of the league table in 20th position, having lost all three of their opening fixtures. They have struggled significantly, managing only one goal while conceding nine, which highlights their defensive vulnerabilities and lack of attacking potency. Their recent form shows just one win in the last five matches, which raises concerns about their ability to turn things around quickly. The model suggests Napoli has a strong probability of winning this match, with a projected score of 2-0. However, one caveat is that if Fiorentina can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Napoli, they might be able to find the back of the net. The full method of this prediction is outlined in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has carefully crafted this assessment based on the current season data.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.1% probability.
Napoli have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Napoli are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fiorentina vs Napoli| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.25 | 3.42 | 2.24 | 1.83 | 1.99 | 1.64 | 2.12 | |
| 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.20 | 1.75 | 1.95 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 3.34 | 3.43 | 2.29 | 1.86 | 2.05 | — | — | |
| 3.02 | 3.31 | 2.24 | 1.84 | 2.06 | — | — | |
| 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.20 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.25 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 3.35 | 3.52 | 2.31 | 1.89 | 2.06 | 1.64 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 3.15 | 3.50 | 2.25 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 3.13 | 3.50 | 2.20 | 1.76 | 1.92 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Napoli leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Fiorentina and Napoli, Napoli has won 6 times, Fiorentina has won 2, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, but Napoli has generally had the upper hand, with several matches resulting in narrow victories, including four matches decided by a single goal. Fiorentina's wins have come in more varied scorelines, including a 3-0 defeat of Napoli in the Super Cup. The most recent draw occurred in 2022, suggesting that while Napoli often wins, Fiorentina can be competitive, particularly at home.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 13 | Napoli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | LLW |
| 18 |  Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 | Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFiorentina have won 7 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Torino 1-2 and lost to Frosinone 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 9D 11L from the last 34 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Napoli have won 5 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Napoli 3-2 and beat Genoa 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 6D 8L from the last 28 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFiorentina4-2-3-1Confirmed
Napoli4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersFiorentina
No reported absences
Napoli
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Doveri has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Fiorentina have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; Napoli 5.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Napoli have generated 1.23 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 4.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Napoli player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
