Juventus vs Atalanta Prediction, Tips & Odds
Juventus vs Atalanta
Match Preview
The model favours Juventus to win against Atalanta, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Juventus currently sits in 5th place in the Serie A standings, having played three matches with two wins and one draw, accumulating a total of seven points. Their defensive record has been strong, conceding only one goal, which highlights their solid backline. With a goal difference of three, they have shown a balanced approach in attack and defence. Atalanta, positioned 8th in the league, has played the same number of matches but has a slightly less impressive record of two wins and one loss, totaling six points. They have scored four goals but have also conceded three, indicating some vulnerability at the back. Their last five matches reflect a similar form to Juventus, with three wins, one draw, and one loss, suggesting they can compete but may struggle defensively against a well-organised Juventus side. According to the model, Juventus has a win probability of approximately 60%, while Atalanta's chances stand at around 30%. The key market percentage to note is that Juventus is favoured at nearly 55% to win. However, a potential issue for Juventus could be complacency, given their strong start to the season. The full method behind these predictions is outlined in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.8% probability.
Juventus have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Juventus clean sheets, in line with their 52% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Juventus are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Juventus vs Atalanta| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.73 | 3.88 | 5.15 | 1.90 | 1.92 | 1.82 | 1.88 | |
| 1.75 | 3.70 | 5.00 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 1.72 | 3.85 | 5.18 | 1.94 | 1.96 | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.56 | 4.41 | 1.92 | 1.96 | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.60 | — | — | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 1.70 | 3.80 | 5.00 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 1.75 | 3.94 | 5.23 | 1.96 | 1.98 | 1.82 | 1.90 | |
Betano | 1.78 | 3.80 | 5.10 | 1.91 | 1.93 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.00 | 1.83 | 1.84 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Juventus leads 3-2)In the last 10 matches between Juventus and Atalanta, Juventus has won 3 times, there have been 5 draws, and Atalanta has won 2 matches. This record indicates a relatively balanced competition, with a notable frequency of draws, accounting for half of the encounters. The scorelines suggest a mix of tight contests and some one-sided results, such as Atalanta's 4-0 victory. Both teams have shown the ability to keep matches low-scoring, with several fixtures ending without goals. Atalanta last won against Juventus in the league in 2025, indicating a challenging period for them in this matchup.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 | Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 8 | Atalanta | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 18 |  Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonJuventus have won 7 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with AC Milan 1-1 and beat Parma 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 9D 6L from the last 29 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Atalanta have won 5 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Atalanta 2-1 and beat Hapoel Tel Aviv 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 7D 9L from the last 30 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersJuventus
No reported absences
Atalanta
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
L. Zufferli has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Juventus have averaged 6.5 corners per match at home; Atalanta 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Juventus have generated 1.74 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Juventus player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
