Parma vs Genoa Prediction, Tips & Odds
Parma vs Genoa
Match Preview
The model favours Parma to win against Genoa, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Parma currently sits in 16th place with one point after three matches, having scored just one goal while conceding four. Their recent form shows a slight improvement, with one win and one draw in their last five matches, indicating some potential for recovery. Genoa, on the other hand, is struggling significantly, occupying 19th place and yet to earn a point this season. They have lost all three of their matches and have conceded seven goals while scoring only once. Their recent form has been poor, with only one win in their last five games, which underscores their ongoing difficulties. The model gives Parma a solid win probability as they look to capitalize on Genoa's struggles. With a projected score of 2-0, Parma appears to have the upper hand. However, a caveat exists: if Parma's scoring issues persist or if they fail to convert chances, the match could become more competitive than anticipated. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, utilizing expected goals and actual results across the season, as assessed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 33% of matches. Genoa average 1.2 goals per game.
Parma manage games at home, conceding just 1.20 goals per match. Genoa score 1.17 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.0% probability.
Parma have been the stronger side, winning 27% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 18.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Parma are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Parma vs Genoa| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.12 | 3.02 | 2.54 | 2.34 | 1.51 | 1.98 | 1.74 | |
| 3.10 | 2.90 | 2.60 | 2.63 | 1.47 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 3.21 | 3.01 | 2.60 | 2.54 | 1.55 | — | — | |
| 2.78 | 2.84 | 2.56 | 2.53 | 1.53 | — | — | |
| 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.45 | — | — | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 1.53 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 3.22 | 3.10 | 2.61 | 2.51 | 1.62 | 1.98 | 1.75 | |
Betano | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.55 | 2.52 | 1.55 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.45 | 2.29 | 1.53 | 2.00 | 1.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Parma leads 4-3)The head-to-head record between Parma and Genoa stands at 4 wins for Parma, 3 draws, and 3 wins for Genoa over the last 10 matches. This record indicates a fairly balanced rivalry, although Parma has a slight edge. The scorelines reveal a mix of tight contests and some decisive victories, with notable matches like Parma’s 5-1 and 4-1 wins highlighting their capability for heavy scoring. Additionally, the last two matches have ended in draws, suggesting recent encounters have been closely contested, while Genoa's last win against Parma was in January 2025, indicating a potential challenge in regaining form against them.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 16 | Parma | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 | DLL |
| 18 |  Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 19 | Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonParma have won 4 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Monza 1-1 and lost to Cremonese 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 11D 11L from the last 30 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Genoa have won 3 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Lazio 1-0 and lost to Bournemouth 10-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 6D 13L from the last 29 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedParma3-4-2-1Confirmed
Genoa3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersParma
No reported absences
Genoa
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Mariani has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Parma have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; Genoa 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Parma have generated 0.70 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 27% of them. They put 3.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Parma player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
