FK Jablonec vs NK Varazdin Prediction, Tips & Odds
FK Jablonec vs NK Varazdin
Match Preview
The model favours FK Jablonec in this matchup, predicting a scoreline of 2-1 against NK Varazdin. FK Jablonec has shown resilience in their recent form, managing two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. This form suggests they are capable of competing effectively, especially at home, where they have the advantage of familiar conditions. On the other hand, NK Varazdin enters this match with a stronger recent record, having won four of their last five matches. This impressive form indicates that they are in good spirits and capable of challenging their opponents. However, the single loss in this stretch could serve as a reminder of their vulnerabilities, particularly when facing a determined side like Jablonec. The model output indicates a win probability of 55% for FK Jablonec, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market to consider is the likelihood of a home win, which stands at a notable percentage. However, a potential caveat for Jablonec could be the pressure of expectations, especially if Varazdin capitalizes on any early mistakes. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilises an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.5% probability.
FK Jablonec have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature FK Jablonec clean sheets, in line with their 31% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. FK Jablonec are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FK Jablonec vs NK Varazdin| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.64 | 3.85 | 4.55 | 1.65 | 2.15 | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
| 1.67 | 3.78 | 4.65 | 1.69 | 2.11 | 1.66 | 2.06 | |
| 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.60 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 1.68 | 3.73 | 4.59 | 1.69 | 2.15 | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.31 | 4.05 | 1.75 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.60 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.65 | 3.60 | 4.50 | 1.73 | 2.08 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.73 | 3.91 | 4.81 | 1.73 | 2.16 | 1.66 | 2.09 | |
| 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.80 | 1.57 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 1.60 | 3.90 | 5.40 | 1.70 | 2.12 | 1.70 | 2.05 |
Superbet | 1.68 | 3.85 | 4.60 | 1.68 | 2.05 | 1.69 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.60 | 1.68 | 2.02 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and NK Varazdin stands at 0 wins for FK Jablonec, 1 draw, and 0 wins for NK Varazdin. Their only encounter ended in a 1-1 draw, indicating a tightly contested match. With no decisive victories and only one match played, this record suggests that both teams have struggled to gain an upper hand against each other. The draw reflects a balanced matchup, with neither side managing to secure a win in their historical fixture.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonFK Jablonec have won 5 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1-0 and beat VfL Osnabrück 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 3D 5L from the last 13 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
NK Varazdin have won 4 of their last 7 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Bihor Oradea 1-3 and beat Radomlje 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 1D 3L from the last 14 games (71% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFK Jablonec4-2-3-1Confirmed
NK Varazdin4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersFK Jablonec
No reported absences
NK Varazdin
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
F. Lata has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by F. Lata to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
FK Jablonec have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; NK Varazdin 2.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
FK Jablonec have generated 0.57 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 2.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. FK Jablonec player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
