FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction, Tips & Odds
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs HNK Hajduk Split
Match Preview
The model favours FK Zalgiris Vilnius to win against HNK Hajduk Split, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Zalgiris has shown strong form recently, winning four of their last five matches, which indicates a positive momentum as they head into this crucial fixture. Their ability to secure victories, particularly at home, could play a significant role in their performance against Hajduk Split. On the other hand, HNK Hajduk Split has had a mixed bag of results, with three wins and two losses in their last five matches. While they have managed to secure three victories, their inconsistency could be a concern as they face a Zalgiris side that is currently in better form. The challenge for Hajduk will be to find a way to convert their potential into a cohesive performance on the road. The model indicates a high win probability for Zalgiris and suggests that they are likely to control much of the match. However, Hajduk's recent win streak could pose a threat if they find their rhythm early. The full method of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model utilizes expected goals and actual results from the season to inform its analysis.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.4% probability.
HNK Hajduk Split have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. HNK Hajduk Split are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs HNK Hajduk Split| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.55 | 3.65 | 1.88 | 1.77 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| 3.66 | 3.54 | 1.91 | 1.76 | 2.01 | 1.65 | 2.08 | |
| 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.91 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 3.75 | 3.46 | 1.86 | 1.75 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 3.08 | 3.04 | 1.94 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.91 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 3.79 | 3.66 | 1.98 | 1.80 | 2.06 | 1.65 | 2.11 | |
| 3.70 | 3.55 | 1.91 | 1.77 | 1.91 | 1.66 | 2.05 | |
| 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.91 | 1.75 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 3.75 | 3.50 | 1.93 | 1.78 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Superbet | 3.65 | 3.50 | 1.95 | 1.76 | 1.95 | 1.66 | 2.10 |
BetVictor | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.93 | 1.75 | 1.92 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (HNK Hajduk Split leads 1-0)In their only historical meeting, HNK Hajduk Split leads the head-to-head record against FK Zalgiris Vilnius with 1 win and no draws. The match ended with a scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Hajduk Split, indicating a relatively close contest. This result suggests that while Hajduk Split emerged victorious, the match was competitive rather than one-sided. Since this was their sole encounter, it remains to be seen how both teams will perform in future matchups.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonFK Zalgiris Vilnius have won 11 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to HNK Hajduk Split 2-5 and beat Dinamo Tbilisi 7-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 5D 13L from the last 35 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
HNK Hajduk Split have won 4 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2-5 and lost to NK Varazdin 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 4D 5L from the last 17 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFK Zalgiris Vilnius4-2-3-1Confirmed
HNK Hajduk Split4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersFK Zalgiris Vilnius
No reported absences
HNK Hajduk Split
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Nagtegaal has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
FK Zalgiris Vilnius average 1.8 goals per match at home; HNK Hajduk Split 1.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
HNK Hajduk Split have generated 2.03 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 6.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. HNK Hajduk Split player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
