Germany vs Greece Prediction, Tips & Odds
Germany vs Greece
Match Preview
Germany enters this knockout match against Greece with a more favorable recent competitive form, having secured four wins out of their last eight matches, despite a mix of friendlies and competitive fixtures. Their last competitive outing resulted in a draw against Paraguay, but prior to that, they showcased their attacking prowess with a dominant 7-1 victory over Curaçao. This recent form suggests a side capable of scoring, which may be crucial in a win-or-out scenario. On the other hand, Greece has struggled in their recent competitive matches, managing only one win in their last eight outings. They have faced difficulties in scoring, with several matches ending in draws or narrow losses. Their defensive record shows promise, particularly in matches against Belarus and Hungary, but they will need to find a way to convert their chances into goals against a potent German attack. As both teams begin their UEFA Nations League journey, the stakes are high. A win is essential for progression, while a loss would mean elimination from the tournament at this early stage. The neutral venue may level the playing field, but Germany's recent form and attacking capabilities give them an edge. One caveat to consider is the limited sample size of competitive matches leading up to this fixture, which may not fully reflect the current state of either team. The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model that analyzes fixtures through aggregated bookmaker probabilities and tournament context, but no specific probabilities are available for this match.
About the Teams
Germany
Profile data not available yet.
Greece
Profile data not available yet.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
Germany have been the stronger side, winning 65% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Germany win as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Germany clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Germany are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Germany vs Greece| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.48 | 4.85 | 6.65 | 1.51 | 2.42 | 1.66 | 2.09 | |
| 1.40 | 4.60 | 7.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.46 | 4.78 | 6.91 | 1.56 | 2.53 | — | — | |
| 1.39 | 4.84 | 6.18 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.20 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.40 | 4.75 | 7.50 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.49 | 4.88 | 6.69 | 1.51 | 2.42 | 1.66 | 2.12 | |
Betano | 1.47 | 5.10 | 6.80 | 1.57 | 2.47 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.60 | 6.50 | 1.51 | 2.34 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 2 Meetings (Germany leads 2-0)Germany and Greece have met twice in recent years, with Germany winning both encounters (2 wins, 0 draws, 0 wins for Greece). The first match took place in a competitive setting during the Euro Championship in 2012, where Germany secured a 4-2 victory. The most recent meeting in 2024 was a friendly, ending 2-1 in favor of Germany. Given that there is only one competitive match in this sample and the other is a friendly, the overall data set is too small to suggest a definitive trend between these teams.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonGermany have won 7 of their last 10 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Greece 0-1 and drew with Paraguay 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 2D 4L from the last 17 games (65% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Greece have won 2 of their last 7 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Greece 0-1 and beat Serbia 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 3D 5L from the last 12 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedGermany4-2-3-1Confirmed
Greece4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersGermany
No reported absences
Greece
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Chris Kavanagh has averaged 5.3 yellow cards per match across 3 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Germany have averaged 7.4 corners per match at home; Greece 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Germany have generated 2.06 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 65% of them. They put 6.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Germany player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.