GIL Vicente vs Maritimo Prediction, Tips & Odds
GIL Vicente vs Maritimo
Match Preview
The model favours GIL Vicente to win against Maritimo, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. GIL Vicente currently sits in 6th place in the Primeira Liga, having played four matches this season. Their form has been solid, with two wins and three draws, showcasing a strong defensive record, conceding just one goal while scoring three. This gives them a goal difference of +2, indicating their ability to maintain tight matches. On the other hand, Maritimo is positioned 8th, having played five matches with a record of two wins, one draw, and two losses. They have scored six goals but have also conceded eight, leading to a negative goal difference of -2. Their recent form reflects some struggle, with only one win in their last five matches, which may hinder their confidence going into this fixture. The model indicates that GIL Vicente has a win probability of approximately 55%, while Maritimo's chances stand at around 25%. The close standings and similar points make this matchup intriguing, but GIL Vicente's stronger defensive performance could be decisive. A caveat to consider is the potential for Maritimo to exploit any defensive lapses, as they have shown the ability to score. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 25% of matches. Maritimo average 1.1 goals per game.
GIL Vicente manage games at home, conceding just 1.33 goals per match. Maritimo score 1.07 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.2% probability.
GIL Vicente have been the stronger side, winning 33% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 GIL Vicente win as the most likely scoreline at 17.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature GIL Vicente clean sheets, in line with their 25% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. GIL Vicente are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
GIL Vicente vs Maritimo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.85 | 2.27 | 1.59 | 1.99 | 1.71 | |
| 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.90 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 1.90 | 1.87 | |
| 2.01 | 3.40 | 4.12 | 2.38 | 1.63 | — | — | |
| 1.93 | 2.89 | 3.50 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.80 | — | — | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.80 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 2.03 | 3.42 | 4.04 | 2.36 | 1.65 | 1.99 | 1.73 | |
Betano | 2.00 | 3.30 | 4.05 | 2.32 | 1.65 | 1.98 | 1.78 |
BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.13 | 3.80 | 2.17 | 1.59 | 2.00 | 1.73 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (GIL Vicente leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between GIL Vicente and Maritimo, GIL Vicente has won 6 times, Maritimo has won 3 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches; however, GIL Vicente has had the upper hand recently, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters. Notably, the matches have featured a mix of narrow wins, such as the 1-0 results, and a few more decisive victories, including two 2-0 wins for GIL Vicente. Maritimo's last win against GIL Vicente came in January 2021, suggesting a shift in dominance.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Santa Clara | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 4 |  Benfica | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 10 | WWWD |
| 5 |  Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 9 | WLWW |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | LDWW |
| 8 | Maritimo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 | LLDWW |
| 16 |  Alverca | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  Estoril | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGIL Vicente have won 7 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat GIL Vicente 2-0 and drew with GIL Vicente 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 9D 7L from the last 24 games (33% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Maritimo have won 1 of their last 4 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Arouca 2-1 and lost to Penafiel 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 3D 7L from the last 14 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedGIL Vicente4-2-3-1Confirmed
Maritimo4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersGIL Vicente
No reported absences
Maritimo
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Bruno Pires Costa has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Bruno Pires Costa to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
GIL Vicente have averaged 6.5 corners per match at home; Maritimo 3.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
GIL Vicente have generated 1.11 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 33% of them. They put 2.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. GIL Vicente player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
